CoreWeave Imploded 20% Over 6 Months: This Analyst Predicts It Will Triple in Price Over the Coming Year
CoreWeave's $104 billion backlog and a Street-high price target suggest massive upside, yet the stock keeps sliding as losses widen and debt piles up. One analyst sees a tripling ahead while others warn the balance sheet leaves almost no margin…
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) currently trades at $80.26. The average price target among analysts is $141.47, which means 76.26% upside.
CoreWeave rents out NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) GPU capacity to AI labs and enterprises. Its growth has been rapid. Second-quarter revenue rose 112.3% to $2.58B, and backlog reached about $104B. Rosenblatt Securities goes further than the consensus with a Street-high target of $250.00. That means about 211% upside, enough to triple the stock.
Because the gap is well above 40%, either the market or the analysts have badly misjudged how this debt-funded buildout pays off.
Debt, Capex and Wider Losses Drove a 27% Slide
Cash burn is the biggest problem. In the second quarter, CoreWeave spent $6.42B on capex, and free cash flow came in at -$5.74B. Interest expense rose to $640M from $267M a year earlier. The net loss widened to $626M from $290M.
Shares have fallen 27.22% over six months and 42.02% over the past year. On the annual view, that is a selloff well past 30%. The stock sat at $136.80 when first-quarter results came out. In that quarter, the loss of -$1.40 per share missed the -$1.20 estimate, and insider selling before the report drew attention. By the second-quarter report, the stock had dropped to $87.64, even though both revenue and earnings beat estimates.
The balance sheet magnifies every concern. Debt-to-equity stands at 8.94 and interest coverage is negative. A securities fraud class action claiming hid data center construction delays adds another overhang.
Why 31 of 42 Analysts Still Say Buy
The bull case rests on revenue visibility. CoreWeave added more than $25B of new customer commitments early in the third quarter. Its contracts include a $21B hyperscaler commitment, about $22.4B from OpenAI and a multi-year Anthropic agreement. Rosenblatt’s $250 thesis points to three factors: exclusive early access to NVIDIA supply, locked-in multi-year backlogs, and power capacity secured while rivals face grid bottlenecks.
Operating leverage is starting to show. Operating cash flow swung to +$679M from -$251M. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.51B, a 59% margin. Active power stands at 1.5 GW against 3.7 GW under contract. CoreWeave also closed a $2B investment from NVIDIA and earned a spot in the NASDAQ-100. The CEO said “our scale began to translate into expanding operating leverage.”
Of 42 analysts, 31 rate the stock a Buy. The full breakdown:
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 23
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 1
Earnings estimates tell a more conservative story. The average 2027 EPS estimate has slipped to -$4.3252 from -$3.3687 90 days ago. Forecasts for 2027 revenue range from $21.1B to $31.03B. Analysts expect losses to continue through 2027, so price targets are one input, and they guarantee nothing.
AI Infrastructure Peers Slid Together, and Two Smaller Names Show Bigger Gaps
The whole group sold off over the past month, so CoreWeave’s drop reflects sector pressure as well as company-specific problems.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) fell 6.45% over the past month but is still up 150.95% year to date. At $210.06 against a $283.60 target, it offers 35.01% implied upside. 14 analysts rate it a Buy and 5 rate it a Hold. Its upside is smaller than CoreWeave’s.
IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) dropped 20.6% in a month and 41.78% over a year. At $34.80 against a $78.14 target, it offers 124.54% upside. It has 15 Buy ratings and no Sells.
Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) fell 12% in a month. At $23.25 against a $64.03 target, it offers 175.4% upside. It has 13 Buy ratings and 2 Holds.
Applied Digital has the biggest consensus upside among these names. CoreWeave sits in the middle on consensus targets, and only Rosenblatt’s $250 call puts it at the top.
A Positive Year That Still Trails the S&P 500
CoreWeave is up 12.08% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 14.1%. Over one year, CoreWeave is down 42.02% while the index is up 19.15%.
The stock trades below its 50-day average of $88.43 and its 200-day average of $92.59. Its 52-week range runs from $60.55 to $150.40.
Backlog Says Yes, Balance Sheet Says Wait
The bull case improves if positive operating cash flow keeps growing and the $104B backlog converts on schedule. Risks grow if capital markets tighten, if its largest customers pull back, or if data center delays hurt revenue recognition.
The setup leans carefully positive. The backlog is real, but interest costs rising this fast leave little room for error.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
