Marvell Stock Could Have a Bigger AI Opportunity Than Investors Realize
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Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) is $232.41. That implies 37.69% upside from the $168.80 close. The model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $168.80 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $232.41 |
| Upside/Downside | 37.69% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Marvell’s fundamentals are speeding up while its stock falls. Management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $18 billion, and a custom silicon agreement with Google could lift fiscal 2029 results well above current models. That gap is where the opportunity lies.
Lumentum Megadeal Sparks a Sharp Monthly Slide
Shares fell 39.04% over the past month but remain up 91.03% year to date. They traded at $162.07 premarket. The last close stands 48.8% below the 52-week high of $329.73.
The selloff deepened after Marvell agreed on November 2, 2026 to acquire optical components maker Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) in an all-stock deal. Barron’s reported that the deal put both stocks on track for historically bad weeks.
The operating results look much better than the stock chart. Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue reached $2.7393B, up 36.55% YoY and ahead of the $2.7068B consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.9289 estimate, extending a 4-quarter beat streak. Data Center revenue grew 46% and now makes up 79% of sales.
Why Bulls See $350+ From Scale-Up Optics and Custom Silicon
As of the August call, management guided to Data Center growth of more than 60% in fiscal 2028. It also expected the custom business to more than double that year. On fiscal 2029, the CEO said custom revenue “would be a lot larger than anybody has been modeling so far.”
He also expected the non-GAAP operating margin to reach the 38% to 40% target range in Q4. The Street leans bullish, with 8 Strong Buy, 35 Buy and 4 Hold ratings and no Sells. Our bull case reaches $351.61.
Risks That Could Keep Marvell Near $180
Revenue is concentrated in data centers, and hyperscalers could bring more chip design in-house. China trade restrictions and $4.963B of long-term debt add pressure, and the Lumentum deal will dilute shareholders. The Q2 GAAP operating margin was 16.8%, compared with 36.6% on a non-GAAP basis. Some of that gap is non-cash.
Q1 net income fell 80.61% largely because of a $331.8M contingent consideration charge. The bear case lands at $181.75, which is still above the last close. (If you want to see what the early signs of the next monster chip winner look like, we reverse-engineered them in a free playbook.)
How Marvell Compares to Broadcom and NVIDIA
In custom AI accelerators and Ethernet switching, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) competes directly with Marvell. AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.70 billion, up 221%, showing how large custom silicon can become at scale. Marvell is earlier on the same path.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is both a benchmark and a partner through NVLink Fusion. Its Data Center Networking revenue grew 138%, which points to rising demand for connectivity. NVIDIA trades at about 35 times trailing earnings. Marvell trades at 28 times forward earnings. The peer group makes our target look reasonable.
| Company | P/E | Latest YoY Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Marvell | 28x (forward) | 36.55% |
| Broadcom | N/A | 85.5% |
| NVIDIA | 35x (trailing) | 105.85% |
Model Keeps a BUY Rating After the Selloff
A 24/7 Wall St. price target of $232.41 accounts for a buy rating at 90% confidence. Faster data center growth is the main reason.
The case strengthens if Q3 revenue meets the $3.150B guidance and the Lumentum integration goes smoothly. It weakens if dilution or hyperscaler insourcing reduces per-share earnings. I think the selloff has overshot the fundamentals.
| Year | Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $232.41 |
| 2027 | $239.90 |
| 2028 | $278.83 |
| 2029 | $342.39 |
| 2030 | $377.76 |
Marvell’s ability to keep executing its custom silicon and optics strategy supports these projections. Results could vary widely depending on the Lumentum integration and how fast hyperscalers spend.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
