Tesla Reports With 21 Analysts on Hold. Here’s What Would Change Their Minds

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results after the close on October 21 (Tesla has not yet confirmed the date). Analysts are cautious going in. 21 Hold ratings outnumber the 15 Buy and 4 Strong Buy calls. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $391.09 over the next 12 months.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A 90% confidence reading counts as high conviction in our model. The target sits just below the consensus analyst target of $397.83, which means our view lines up with the Street.

What would move those 21 Holds is evidence that the heavy spending going on now will lead to profits on autonomy and energy.

Shares Down 21.12% in 2026 Heading Into Earnings

Tesla has fallen 7.31% over the past week, 0.94% over the past month and 21.12% year to date. That leaves it roughly 28.9% below its 52-week high of $498.83 and about 19.3% above its low of $297.38. Musk’s reveal of a Roadster “flying” car drew headlines on Friday, but the stock still closed 2.13% lower that day.

In the second quarter, revenue of $28.24B rose 25.5% and beat estimates. EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 estimate. Operating margin narrowed to 1.4%, and free cash flow came in at -$1.09B.

Why Bulls See $459 in Autonomy and Energy

Full Self-Driving (FSD) has turned into a demand engine. Active subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56%, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries came with FSD. Robotaxi has logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving with “zero major incidents,” and Musk said that “demand will outstrip our ability to service the demand.”

Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh, Tesla ended Q2 with its “largest order backlog since 2023,” and Optimus production lines are going into Fremont. If those pieces come together, our bull case reaches $459.15.

Margin Compression Is What Keeps Analysts on Hold

Operating expenses rose 47% to $4.35B. Management expects 2026 capex of more than $25 billion, with spending growing for two or three years. Automotive margin excluding credits slipped from 19.2% to 16.3%.

Some of that fall is one-off: Q1 included a $230 million warranty and tariff benefit, and without it margins were “approximately flat.” Energy margin also fell partly because of a $240 million warranty true-up. Our bear case is $354.06.

How Tesla Compares to Rivian and Lucid

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) competes directly with Tesla in U.S. EVs and is pursuing robotaxis through Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER). Its gross margin is 2.7% and its operating margin is -66.5%, compared with Tesla’s 18.03% gross margin.

Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) is also testing robotaxis with Uber. It posted Q2 free cash flow of -$1.48 billion and has a gross margin of -92.8%.

Tesla’s premium makes sense given that it is the only one of the three that is profitable. Measured against these peers, a target near consensus looks reasonable.

Q3 Margins Decide Whether Hold Ratings Flip

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $391.09, our model rates Tesla a buy, and confidence is 90%. What tips the scale is Tesla’s ability to raise revenue even while spending heavily.

I would turn more constructive if Q3 shows automotive margins holding steady and FSD subscriptions continuing to grow. I would turn more cautious if operating margin stays near 1% while capex rises. On balance, the model still sees upside from $354.

Tesla Price Prediction 2026-2030

Looking further out, here is where our model projects Tesla could trade, assuming current trends hold.

These projections assume Tesla stays on its current strategic course. The results could land well above or below these figures depending on how Robotaxi scales and whether Optimus reaches commercial volume.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.