Anthropic Has Committed $450 Billion to Cloud Computing, Its Draft IPO Filing Shows
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing reveals cloud commitments so large they could reshape the risk profiles of Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft simultaneously, and all three companies are both financing Anthropic and competing against it.
Anthropic’s updated confidential draft IPO filing describes about $450 billion of cloud compute agreements over the next decade, which The Wall Street Journal reported after reviewing the draft. The document calls them “massive, noncancelable” commitments.
The draft is not posted on SEC EDGAR. Every Anthropic figure here is what the draft reportedly shows, and any of it could change before a public filing.
The sellers are Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Each one rents Anthropic computing power and owns an equity stake in it, and each also builds AI products that compete with Claude.
None of the three stocks moved in a way that ties them to the report. On Tuesday, October 20, Amazon closed at $262.63, up 0.07%, Alphabet fell 1.13% to $340.28, and Microsoft slipped 0.31% to $531.87.
That calm may miss what matters for shareholders. Part of each company’s cloud backlog (revenue already under contract but not yet booked) now depends on one customer that is also a rival, and that customer’s ability to pay depends on a successful IPO.
What Anthropic’s Draft Locks In
The $450 billion covers cloud agreements only. The draft also points to as much as $750 billion of potential compute spending, and that figure includes deals still under negotiation, so part of it is intent with no signed contract behind it.
A September version of the draft split the commitments into $111 billion for Google Cloud, $110 billion for Amazon Web Services and $31 billion for Microsoft. That version showed a $518 billion total that included obligations to Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO).
The hyperscalers signed because Anthropic is growing fast. First-half 2026 revenue reached $16.3 billion, compared with $1.1 billion a year earlier. Compute spending hit nearly $9 billion in those six months, against $7.3 billion in all of 2025.
The first-half net loss of $80.7 billion looks bad. About $72 billion of it, however, came from non-cash adjustments tied to convertible notes and financing instruments.
Which Cloud Giant Carries the Most Anthropic Risk
Alphabet holds the largest commitment, so it gains the most and is the most exposed. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.77 billion in the second quarter, and Gemini competes directly with Claude.
Amazon’s exposure is similar. AWS reported a $496 billion backlog, and Anthropic has committed to up to 5 GW of Trainium chips.
Microsoft’s share is small next to its $678 billion of commercial remaining performance obligations. All three booked Anthropic investment gains in 2026, including Microsoft’s $3.2 billion, so when they promote Anthropic demand, they are promoting an investment they own.
Where Noncancelable Stops Protecting the Sellers
A noncancelable contract protects the seller only as long as the buyer can pay. About 20% of Anthropic’s first-half revenue came from two customers, so the concentration risk affects both Anthropic and its suppliers.
The draft also says Anthropic sought more capacity than the hyperscalers would supply. It is reportedly in talks with Nscale about a second West Virginia data center deal worth about $45 billion, which has not been nailed down. All of that capacity still has to be powered, cooled, and connected by somebody, which is the thread we pulled on in a free report on seven AI infrastructure suppliers that aren’t chipmakers.
How Cloud Stock Valuations Stack Up Against Anthropic Exposure
On balance, the bull case is stronger, and Alphabet has the best version of it. It trades at about 15 times earnings, compared with about 36 times for Amazon and 30 for Microsoft, and it owns both the largest Anthropic contract and a competing model.
The bear case rests on cash. Alphabet’s free cash flow was negative $5.86 billion in the second quarter, and every one of these contracts assumes Anthropic remains funded.
IPO marketing could start the week of Nov. 9 at the earliest, and shares could start trading before Thanksgiving. The draft says the offering could value Anthropic at $2 trillion, which remains a preliminary estimate that could change before pricing.
Alphabet and Microsoft are expected to report on October 28, and Amazon on October 29. If Google Cloud or AWS backlog growth stalls on those calls, or management flags Anthropic payment risk, this view is wrong.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
