Live update #4

Options Traders Are Bullish Ahead of Meta’s Earnings, but Brace for a Massive Move

From live coverage: Live: Will Meta Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After the Bell?
META
Meta

Options positioning


Put/call 0.64Balanced
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
127.3%
Expiry
Wed, Oct 21chain as of Tue, Oct 20

A 0.64 put/call ratio ahead of tonight's report says call buyers outnumber put buyers, the direct read being traders leaning toward upside, though skew that one-sided can also leave the most room for disappointment. Still, 127.3% at-the-money implied volatility on options expiring today prices in a violent reaction either way, and the 700 strike holds 217 puts against 16 calls, the clearest wall just above the money.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $687.5

    33 / 1

  • $690

    22 / 0

  • $692.5

    16 / 0

  • $695

    20 / 1

  • $697.5

    2 / 0

  • $700

    217 / 16

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Meta Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Meta’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Mark Zuckerberg Says Meta Just Hit a Major AI Milestone

Thomas Richmond
Earnings · 2026 Q3
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO

4:03pm ET

We hit major milestones this quarter toward delivering personal superintelligence for everyone - including launching Muse and Muse Wonder, our first frontier model.

Meta now has its own frontier model family in the market, putting the heaviest AI capex budget in big tech to a direct test against OpenAI and Google. Shares are up 0.2% since the Q3 earnings remarks.

META +0.20% since the quote

Meta's Q3 Results Send the Stock Soaring

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Q3 2026

4:03pm ET

EPS
$3.83
est $5.70
-32.8%

Revenue
$64.60B
est $63.39B
+1.9%

A $9.89 billion teen mental health settlement charge sits inside the quarter, and excluding it diluted EPS would have been $7.40, so the EPS miss is a legal bill rather than a business problem. Revenue beat consensus by 1.9%, and management guided Q4 revenue to $73 billion to $76 billion.

Meta Crushes the Bear Case as Stock Rips 7%

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Thesis check

4:10pm ET

intact$697.52 +0.5% today
“Meta's AI spending surge pays for itself through a stronger core ad business”

Bull case
  • Revenue of $64.60 billion topped estimates, with advertising at $63.06 billion
  • Average price per ad rose 14% year-over-year on 10% more impressions
  • Q4 revenue guided to $73-76 billion
  • Reality Labs losses guided down to $18-19 billion in 2026
Bear case
  • EPS of $3.83 missed the $5.70 consensus by roughly a third
  • 2026 capex guided to $135-145 billion with the payoff still undated
  • Full-year expenses raised to $175-179 billion
  • Youth-related trials still ahead after the $18.59 billion state attorneys general settlement

Pricing power tips it: a 14% increase in average ad price alongside 10% more impressions is the clean evidence that AI-driven ranking is monetizing, and it survives an EPS miss that traces mostly to the litigation charge. Expectations we flagged at 3:10pm pointed to a 14% chance of a beat and the quarter missed expectations, yet the stock held. A Q4 revenue figure below the $73 billion floor would flip this to weakening.

Meta Raises AI Spending Guidance as FCF Turns Negative

Thomas Richmond

Meta Platforms is doubling down on its massive AI investments, raising the lower end of its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $130 billion to $135 billion. The company now expects to spend $135 billion to $145 billion this year, above Wall Street’s $132.08 billion estimate.

The spending is putting significant pressure on profitability. Meta reported negative free cash flow of -$2.12 billion in Q3, while its operating margin plunged to 20% from 40% a year earlier.

However, the company’s core advertising business remains strong. Advertising revenue surged 26% year over year to $63.06 billion, supported by a 10% increase in ad impressions and a 14% jump in average ad pricing.

Meta also guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $73 billion to $76 billion, compared with Wall Street’s $73.68 billion estimate.

The big takeaway: Meta’s advertising engine continues to deliver impressive growth, but investors are increasingly being asked to tolerate enormous AI spending and weaker near-term cash flow.

Meta Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Jumps 5% Despite Massive 44% EPS Miss

Thomas Richmond

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just reported third-quarter earnings, with shares initially up 2% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $64.60 billion vs. $63.41 billion expected (Beat)
  • EPS: $3.83 vs. $6.80 expected (Miss)

Quick Read:

  • Massive earnings miss: Meta missed EPS expectations by approximately 44%, even as revenue topped estimates by 2%.
  • Revenue growth remains strong: Sales soared 26% year over year and 6% sequentially, while reported EPS jumped 265% year over year despite falling 38% from last quarter.

Meta shares are initially rising despite the earnings miss, suggesting investors may be focusing on the company’s strong revenue growth.

Wall Street Sees 17% Upside for Meta Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Valuation · as of Oct 21

3:57pm ET

$698.20+0.6%Target $819.00 · +17.3%
52-wk low $519.3752-wk high $779.82

Trailing P/E
26.6×
Forward P/E
20.6×
PEG
1.9×
Price/Sales
7.9×
EV/EBITDA
17.1×
Price/Book
7.3×
Market cap $1.80T · Revenue +28.0% YoY
8 Strong buy47 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

Going into tonight's report, Meta trades at 26.6 times trailing earnings and 20.6 times forward, a discount to its own 28% revenue growth that only holds if margins survive the capex build. At $698.20 the stock sits about 10% below its $779.82 high, with the $819 consensus target implying 17% upside from here.

Key Takeaways From Meta's Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Last quarter — Q2 2026

2:55pm ET

EPS
$6.18vs $7.22 est -14.4%
Revenue
$60.80Bvs $60.29B est +0.9%
Earnings-day move -8.0%Since report +20.9%

In Q2, revenue kept growing while AI infrastructure and legal costs pushed earnings to a miss of expectations. Q3 margins and the capex outlook matter more than another revenue beat.

Price since the report

$797$658$520

Reported Wed, Jul 29 · next print Wed, Oct 21

What Reddit Investors Are Saying Ahead of Meta's Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Reddit hype check

3:20pm ET

36Board activity / 100Neutral · 41
58 qualified mentions · past 7 days

Retail boards are surprisingly quiet into tonight's report: 58 qualified mentions over the past week with sentiment sitting neutral, with Meta's AI spending drawing little attention. Treat it as a crowd that hasn't picked a side yet on the quarter.

Board activity — past 7 days

63.034.05.00


r/wallstreetbets
Lost 268k in 0DTE options - I will never be able to recover from this financially
3.0K upvotes · 1.2K comments

Only 14% Odds on Polymarket That Meta Beats Earnings

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Prediction markets

3:10pm ET

Will Meta (META) beat quarterly earnings?
14%Yes
Polymarket · $6k traded · resolves Wed, Oct 21

Traders on Polymarket are pricing only a slim chance Meta clears the GAAP EPS bar tonight, unusual skepticism for a company that routinely tops estimates. The pricing points to AI infrastructure and legal costs weighing on the bottom line. Volume is thin, so the market reflects sentiment more than conviction.

Meta's Technical Setup Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Technical setup

3:16pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Wed, Oct 21
  • R2$775.54+10.3%
  • R1$747.60+6.3%
  • Now$703.02
  • S1$595.80-15.3%
  • S2$538.72-23.4%
50-day avg
$661.67+6.2% above
200-day avg
$632.67+11.1% above
52-week range
$520.26 – $779.82

Meta Platforms goes into tonight's earnings report at $703.02, above both its 50-day ($661.67) and 200-day ($632.67) averages. The level that decides the post-earnings move is $747.60 resistance; clearing it brings the $779.82 52-week high into range, while missing expectations leaves open air down to $595.80 support.

Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Meta's Q3 Results

Thomas Richmond
META
Meta

Call preview · Q3 2026

2:50pm ET

Wed, Oct 21
Earnings call · after close

Analysts have pressed Meta on AI capex and its return in each of the last four calls, and tonight's after-the-bell call is where that thread meets a quarter in which spending guidance already set the bar. The newer question, enterprise AI as an actual revenue line, has now come up three calls running, so management's answer there is the one most likely to move the stock after the earnings report.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • AI CapEx and ROI outlook
  • AI-driven ad ranking improvements
  • Muse model and product roadmap
  • Meta AI and agentic strategy
  • Enterprise AI and new revenue

Meta Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Its $145 Billion AI Bet Finally Pay Off?

Thomas Richmond

Meta Platforms is expected to report third-quarter earnings after the bell tonight at 4:00 PM ET, with Wall Street watching whether the company’s massive AI investments are starting to deliver meaningful returns.

Analysts expect earnings of $5.70 per share, down from $7.25 a year ago, as AI infrastructure spending and legal expenses weigh on profitability.

Meta’s full-year capital expenditure guidance of $130 billion to $145 billion is raising questions about free cash flow, which fell to just $784 million last quarter.

Meta’s advertising business remains incredibly strong. Last quarter, ad impressions jumped 14% while average pricing increased 12%, suggesting AI investments may already be improving monetization.

With Meta valued at roughly $1.56 trillion, investors will be looking for evidence that revenue growth can outpace rising costs. Strong advertising results and stable margins could reassure Wall Street, while another expense surprise could reignite concerns about Meta’s enormous AI spending.

View the full live blog (14 updates) →