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Live: Will Robinhood Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight After a 3% Intraday Climb?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 27, 2:06pm ET · Published Oct 27, 2:08pm ET

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What Robinhood's Q3 Earnings Have to Show After 19% Decline

Robinhood reports Q3 earnings tonight, with analysts expecting $1.43 billion in revenue and $0.55 in EPS.

Shares have fallen 19.22% over the past month, despite record customer deposits, Gold subscribers, and platform assets.

Investors will be watching whether prediction markets, Agentic Trading, and Trump Accounts can offset an expected 38% decline in crypto revenue.

Strong results could reinforce management’s ambition to grow the business tenfold over the next decade.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

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The story so far

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results tonight at 4:05 PM ET. Shares are up 3.89% today to $96.45, but the stock is down 14.72% year to date, so this report needs to show that continued monetization efforts are driving earnings.

HOOD price target

Record Quarter Meets a Sliding Stock

Robinhood’s Q2 revenue rose 32% to $1.308 billion. EPS of $0.62 beat the $0.4314 estimate, but about $129 million of net income came from deconsolidating Robinhood Ventures Fund I. Net deposits hit a record $21.7 billion, and Gold subscribers grew 39% to 4.8 million.

The revenue mix is changing as event contracts revenue grew more than tenfold to $156 million, while crypto revenue fell to $100 million. Management also cut its 2026 adjusted operating expense and SBC outlook to $2.675-$2.775 billion.

Consensus Estimates Point to Slower Growth

Metric Q3 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Estimate FY 2027 Estimate
Revenue $1.43B +12.4% $5.32B $6.88B
EPS (Normalized) $0.55 -9.0% $2.17 $2.96

Consensus revenue growth of about 12% is well below the 32% rate in the second quarter. Analysts have continued to raise their estimates. The Q3 EPS average has risen from $0.49 90 days ago, with 8 upward revisions against 2 downward ones over the past 30 days.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Prediction Markets, Deposits and Crypto

Here are some of the top items I’m watching in Robinhood’s Q3 earnings tonight:

  1. Prediction markets: Users grew to close to 2 million, and Rothera became a top-three U.S. contract market after about a month. The key question is whether demand from top events like football season, the midterms, and macro events keeps volumes growing.
  2. Net deposits: July deposits were tracking toward the $4 billion area, and Trump Accounts drew nearly $1.5 billion. Whether growth holds well above the 20% annual target is worth monitoring.
  3. Crypto: Management said July crypto activity was somewhat slower than Q2. The question is how Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Earn, and today’s Ripple digital dollar deal fit into the story about how crypto makes money.
  4. AI and costs: Agentic Trading had more than 100,000 accounts. Credit loss provisions doubled to $56 million, and with the CFO transition still ongoing, expense discipline is a key area to watch.

Earnings History Shows Volatile Reactions

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 14-Day Move
Q2 2026 +43.72% -0.05% +4.75% N/A
Q1 2026 -1.99% +2.37% +11.03% N/A
Q4 2025 +3.79% -8.79% -2.98% N/A
Q3 2025 +12.07% +2.58% -4.37% N/A
HOOD earnings explorer

On average, shares have moved 2.11% within a week of earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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