Prediction markets
Polymarket traders price just a 34% chance that Alphabet's GAAP EPS tops expectations in tonight's earnings report. Options activity points the other way, with call buyers dominating ahead of the report, so one of the two crowds gets a surprise after the close.
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That wraps up our initial coverage of Alphabet’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!
The red flag in Alphabet's Q3 report is that Search revenue of $63.35 billion came in missing expectations of $64.85 billion. Although Cloud posted 103% growth, Alphabet is relying on the Search business as an advertising engine that funds the company. With the stock down 9% after hours, one of the main questions to watch for on the call is whether capex will keep climbing against a softer ad base.
Q3 2026
4:01pm ET
Google Cloud revenue doubled, up 103% year over year on AI infrastructure and TPU sales, which is what matters for investors here. The EPS miss came from an $8.7 billion loss on equity securities, and quarterly capex of $51.4 billion pushed free cash flow negative. Keep an eye on the stock as the call gets underway.
Thesis check
4:05pm ET
The search miss is what tips it: cloud can double and still not matter if the segment underwriting the capex budget is slowing. Shares are down 9% following the report. A search reacceleration next quarter, with cloud holding near triple-digit growth, would put the thesis back intact.
Alphabet just reported its Q3 2026 earnings, with shares initially down 7% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Quick Read:
Technical setup
3:30pm ET
At $323.71, Alphabet heads into tonight's earnings below both its 50-day ($341.49) and 200-day ($341.19) averages, which sit almost on top of each other and form one thick ceiling just above. Support at $314.90 is the level that matters if the reaction disappoints, with $351.58 the first resistance a strong report would have to clear.
Options positioning
3:20pm ET
A 0.55 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings says call buyers dominate and traders are leaning toward upside, though crowded optimism is exactly the setup that disappoints when a quarter lands soft. The 83.4% at-the-money implied volatility on the October 30 expiration shows how much movement is priced in, with call open interest stacked at the 325 and 327.5 strikes and puts clustered at 315 and 320.
3.5k / 1k
1.2k / 917
3.4k / 1.5k
1.1k / 820
2.7k / 5.2k
710 / 3.5k
Alphabet is set to report its Q3 2026 earnings after the market closes today, with investors closely watching whether its massive AI investments are beginning to pay off.
Google Cloud grew an impressive 82% last quarter, and investors will be looking for continued momentum as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates.
However, that growth comes at a significant cost. Alphabet’s capital spending doubled to $44.92 billion last quarter, pushing free cash flow into negative territory.
Wall Street expects EPS of $3.0030, while GOOGL shares have fallen 5.88% over the past month.
The big question tonight is whether Alphabet can sustain its explosive Cloud growth while showing signs that its enormous AI investments will eventually translate into stronger cash flow.
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