SoFi Is Still Down 35% This Year: Did Today Just Mark the Bottom for SOFI Stock?
SoFi just delivered a blowout quarter with surging revenue and raised guidance, yet the stock sits 35% below where it started the year. Whether that gap represents a rare entry point or a warning signal depends on risks that most…
Even after a blockbuster earnings week, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI | SOFI Price Prediction) remains deep in the red for 2026, leaving investors to wonder whether the bottom is finally in. SoFi stock trades at $16.87 in afternoon trading, down 35% year to date (YTD).
Checking in on the peers, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) stock is at $90.98, down 20% YTD. Meanwhile, Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) stock is at $72.72, down 2% YTD.
What Dragged SoFi Down in 2026 and What Just Changed
Rising rates set the tone for SoFi’s rough 2026, and valuation worries weighed on the shares. Management stated its original 2026 outlook assumed rate cuts, and the company instead absorbed a rate hike that lifted borrowing costs more than it expected.
Momentum shifted on October 27, when SoFi reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1.37 billion, up 43% year over year and ahead of Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $1.26 billion. Lending did much of the work in the quarter, offsetting weakness elsewhere in the business.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at SoFi came in at $0.18, exceeding Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $0.17. Net income at SoFi rose 73% to $241 million. Profit growth outpacing revenue growth suggests the model is becoming more efficient as it grows.
SoFi then raised its 2026 revenue outlook to about $5.04 billion from $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, and it lifted its 2026 EPS guidance to $0.61, above Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $0.59. Those updates have sent SoFi stock sharply higher over the past week.
Considering the Case for a SoFi Bottom
The bulls can start with SoFi’s customer growth. Members at SoFi grew 35% to 17.1 million, while products rose 44% to 26.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto said, “We are not seeing evidence of a slowdown” in borrowing, spending, saving or investing.
Financial services revenue at SoFi rose 25% to $525 million, and lending revenue of $807 million beat Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $711 million. Strength across both segments shows SoFi growing beyond a single product. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev called the SoFi report “pristine.”
The bears have their own list, though. SoFi’s technology platform revenue fell 24% to $87 million after a large client left. Holding more loans on its balance sheet has added risk for SoFi, and management disclosed “our SoFi Plus growth was below what we expected” in Q3. Even with the rally, SoFi stock remains far below where it began the year.
Against that background, SoFi stock is up 3% from its prior close. Robinhood stock is down 4% after its Q3 2026 profit missed estimates as crypto trading slowed, though its YTD loss is smaller than SoFi’s. Affirm stock is down 0.1%, leaving it nearly flat for the year. Lending drives SoFi’s model, which carries loans on its balance sheet, while Robinhood earns most of its revenue from trading activity.
What to Watch Next
Credit quality comes first for SoFi as its loan holdings grow. SoFi lifted total loan originations 71% to a record $16.9 billion, with personal loan originations up 69% to $12.6 billion. Higher balances mean any rise in losses would hit results harder. A softer economy could test those loans, while steady charge-offs would strengthen the bulls’ argument.
Targets for 2027 from SoFi call for $6.4 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.90, above Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $0.82, and the company says it can fund that plan without raising new capital. The next test for SoFi is whether technology platform revenue stabilizes, with management guiding to 25% growth in that segment in 2027.
Rates add another variable, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decision occurring today. Lower rates could revive SoFi’s home loan business, while a higher path would keep funding costs elevated, though Noto maintained “we can operate just as well in a high rate environment as we can in a low rate environment.” Investors may want to track SoFi’s credit and rate picture closely as it develops.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
