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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results at 4:00 PM ET today. The company has beaten its own targets for seven consecutive quarters, yet the stock has seen a sharp pullback over the past month.
Fastest Growth in Fifteen Years Meets a Skeptical Market
Intel’s second-quarter revenue rose 25.4% to $16.13 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 beat the $0.22 estimate. Data Center and AI revenue jumped 59%, while operating cash flow reached $7.01 billion. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it “our strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years.”
Shares still fell 7.89% on earnings day. CFO David Zinsner flagged lasting shortages: “We will not fully catch up. We will still be behind in the fourth quarter.”
Analysts Sit Above Intel’s Own Guide
| Metric |
Q3 2026 Estimate |
Company Guidance |
FY 2026 Estimate |
FY 2027 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$16.47B |
$15.8B to $16.8B |
$63.17B |
$73.06B |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$0.3953 |
$0.38 |
$1.5297 |
$2.1446 |
The EPS consensus implies about 72% growth from the $0.23 earned a year ago. Revenue estimates clear the $16.3 billion guidance midpoint. The 2027 EPS view climbed from $1.9914 to $2.1446 over 90 days, so analysts are already pricing in capacity relief.
What to Watch Tonight: Server Supply, 18A Yields and ASIC Scale
On server supply, management planned to shift as much production as possible to data center CPUs and said bottlenecks could begin to ease near the end of the quarter. Market expectations put a 78.5% chance on Data Center and AI revenue topping $6.5 billion.
Foundry’s operating loss narrowed by $348 million to $2.1 billion, and 18A output ran approximately 25% above target. Key items to track include the October Intel 14A PDK 0.9 milestone and any listed external customers.
Margins remain the swing factor. Panther Lake and Granite Rapids still sit below the corporate average, and the stated goal is gross margin “comfortably into the 40s in every quarter.”
Investors should also track the ASIC business, which runs near $2 billion annually, with a $4 billion target. On the PC side, management saw 2026 consumption falling into the low double digits on memory costs.
Intel’s Post-Earnings Track Record
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Day-Of Move |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
| Q2 2026 |
+93.10% |
-7.89% |
-0.7% |
-2.3% |
| Q1 2026 |
+2183.46% |
+23.6% |
+2.97% |
+20.69% |
| Q4 2025 |
+56.58% |
-17.03% |
-5.72% |
+3.11% |
| Q3 2025 |
+3050.68% |
+0.31% |
+3.29% |
+4.47% |
On average, shares swung 6.49% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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