This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal first-quarter results at 4:05 PM ET today. The stock has pulled back sharply, which makes this report a test of whether the AI storage boom still has room to run.
Record Margins Meet a Cooling Stock
Last quarter, Sandisk posted non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 against a $33.28 consensus. Revenue reached $8,965 million, up 372% year over year, with roughly 2/3 of the sequential gain coming from higher pricing. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.6% from 78.4% the prior quarter.
Datacenter revenue rose 103% sequentially, and operating cash flow hit $7,126 million. The board then raised remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion.
Sentiment has cooled since then. Shares trade at $1,354.03, down 3.61% today, amid reports that memory stocks have lost their mojo. The stock remains up 470.41% year to date.
Wall Street Sets the Bar Above Guidance
| Metric |
Q1 FY2027 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY2027 Estimate |
FY2028 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$10.68B |
+362.6% |
$49.14B |
$58.44B |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$46.2722 |
+3,692.8% |
$214.8233 |
$266.2971 |
Consensus EPS sits above management’s $44.00 to $46.00 range and has climbed $44.2073 over the past 90 days. FY2027 revenue estimates mean 142.7% growth. FY2028 growth then slows down to 18.9%, a sign that analysts are modeling a cooling cycle.
What to Watch Tonight: NBM Contracts, Pricing, and Datacenter Mix
Here are some of the top items to watch in Sandisk’s earnings report tonight:
- NBM momentum. Sandisk now has NBMs with 8 customers, worth a minimum of $93.9 billion at floor pricing. The key things to watch are new deals and growth in remaining performance obligations beyond $59.8 billion.
- Pricing versus volume. Guidance assumes modest price increases plus bit growth, but FY2027 marketable bits sit in the mid-teens because of higher inventory requirements. The CFO estimated NBM margins at around 80%, so focus on where gross margin lands within the 83% to 85% guide.
- Datacenter and high-bandwidth flash. Datacenter reached 38% of the portfolio exiting FY2026, and QLC Stargate began shipping for revenue. CEO David Goeckeler said, “We continue to see very robust demand through the end of ’27 and into ’28.”
- Edge and consumer weakness. Consumer revenue fell 32% sequentially last quarter. The question is whether smartphone and PC weakness spreads further into Edge.
Sandisk Earnings Reaction History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q4 FY2026 |
+17.94% |
-3.68% |
+21.42% |
+38.09% |
| Q3 FY2026 |
+59.67% |
+5.8% |
+31.62% |
+54.3% |
| Q2 FY2026 |
+74.97% |
+15.44% |
+3.77% |
+3.96% |
| Q1 FY2026 |
+37.08% |
+11.89% |
+6.13% |
-2.76% |
On average, shares swung 15.7% in the week following earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
