Nucor’s CEO Says He’s Seeing the Strongest Steel Demand in His 31 Years at the Company

Nucor (NYSE:NUE | NUE Price Prediction) just made a 31-year call on steel demand. During the company’s Q3 earnings call on Oct. 27, Chair and CEO Leon Topalian said, “In my 31 years in Nucor…I am seeing currently the strongest demand environment across the breadth of Nucor’s products.” He followed with this: “We are at the tip of the spear of the greatest economic growth in our nation.”

The company’s quarterly performance supports his claim. Revenue rose to $11.25 billion, up 32.02% from $8.52 billion. Net earnings reached $1.32 billion, compared with $607 million a year ago. Steel mill shipments exceeded 7.2 million tons, a record for the third straight quarter. GAAP EPS of $5.80 just missed expectations of $5.828. Shares traded around $266.86 on Wednesday, Oct. 28, up 57.53% year to date (YTD).

AI Accounts for a Small Slice of This Boom

Leon Topalian said data centers represent about 15% of Nucor’s entire backlog. He then listed other strong markets: chips and technology hardware, natural gas power plants, LNG export terminals, nuclear, utilities, pharma, shipbuilding, military and defense spending, and appliance and HVAC, plus heavy equipment that he said “is coming back gangbusters.” That range is why steel products backlogs rose about 25%.

Laxton’s Three Long-Lasting Demand Engines

President and COO Steve Laxton pointed to infrastructure, including border wall and stadium construction. On reshoring and digital infrastructure, he said supportive federal actions on tax, trade and regulatory areas have helped drive considerably higher levels of manufacturing construction. On energy, Steve Laxton said utilities plan to spend nearly $1.4 trillion over the next five years. Those drivers show up in the results: Tubular shipments rose 82% year over year, and the towers and structures backlog more than doubled year to date, now extending into Q1 2028.

Three Risks That Could Test the Bull Case

• Imports: Leon Topalian said finished steel imports are down more than 13% year over year, but volumes have been climbing again in recent months, including “a massive surge from South Korea despite the Section 232 tariffs.” Import market share grew from about 14% in Q4 2025 to about 17%.
• Autos: Nucor’s flat-rolled shipments to automotive customers are up 4% YTD, Steve Laxton said, while North American auto production is essentially unchanged. That makes this a market share story that depends on continued wins.
• Costs: CFO Jack Sullivan cited higher costs for consumables, freight, energy and other services as the mills run at high utilization. He told analysts to expect “a modest uptick in conversion costs” in the fourth quarter.

Management Expects 2027 to Top 2026

Topalian said 2026 is shaping up to be the third best financial year in company history, and he fully expects 2027 to be even stronger. Nucor guided fourth-quarter earnings in line with or modestly higher than Q3. It has already generated about $2.7 billion of free cash flow this year and returned nearly $1.4 billion to shareholders. If import share stops rising while the West Virginia mill ramps in early 2027, the CEO’s 31-year call has room to play out. If imports keep taking share, pricing is the first number likely to come under pressure.

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