The ‘Connected Trip’ Gamble: What To Watch In Booking Holdings’ Nov. 3 Earnings Call

Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG | BKNG Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on November 3. Shares are down 30.63% year to date, so this report needs to show that the Connected Trip and the merchant push can make up for slowing room nights.

Six Straight Beats, Yet Shares Keep Sliding

Last quarter, adjusted EPS of $2.54 exceeded the $2.44 consensus. Revenue of $7.35B grew 8.2%, which extended a six-quarter run of beats on both lines. Room nights rose 5% to 325M, about 1 percentage point above the top of guidance.

The stock climbed to $212.26 a week after that report. Today it trades near $147.52, after a 10.02% drop over the past month. Management guided third-quarter room nights up 3% to 5%, compared with 8% growth a year ago. They also cut the full-year bookings outlook because flight ticket growth slowed from 44% to 4%.

Wall Street Expects Double-Digit EPS Growth

The revenue consensus is near the top of management’s 4% to 6% guide. The quarterly EPS estimate has declined since standing at $4.5464 90 days ago.

Connected Trip and AI Have to Carry the Load

Connected Trip transactions grew “low double digits, more than twice the rate of Booking.com’s total transaction growth” last quarter. Merchant gross bookings reached about 73% of the total, up roughly 4 percentage points. The key question is whether that mix shift holds up while flights and rental cars, where day bookings fell 6.5%, keep trailing.

AI is the second test. Priceline is rolling out the next generation of its Penny assistant, and Booking.com is testing AI-powered discovery. In August, Glenn Fogel admitted, “I don’t have conclusive data to share yet.” Look for real conversion numbers this time. Ewout Steenbergen put traffic from large language models at “still significantly below 1% of our room nights.”

The cost of attracting customers matters too. Fogel said AI overviews “have put some pressure on SEO,” and marketing expense rose 11%, a bit faster than gross bookings. The guide also assumes the indirect effects of the Middle East conflict remain, including high flight prices and softer long-haul demand. Even so, management expected “slightly less impact than the second quarter.”

A Discounted Leader Gets Its Chance to Reset Sentiment

Booking raised its Transformation Program run-rate savings target to about $650M, fully realized by the end of 2027. It still has $14.5B left on its buyback authorization. Those drivers support per-share growth, but volume trends set the multiple. A demonstration that Connected Trip growth and the merchant mix are raising how much it makes per booking while room nights slow could shift sentiment quickly from these low levels.

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