Palantir heads into tonight’s Q3 earnings report with enormous expectations after its U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% last quarter.
Wall Street expects $2.18 billion in revenue, slightly above management’s guidance of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion.
The bigger question is whether Palantir can deliver another major guidance raise as demand for its AI software accelerates.
With shares trading at roughly 261x trailing earnings, investors have already priced in extraordinary growth. Even another earnings beat might not be enough to send the stock higher.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today at 4:05 PM ET. Shares slipped 6.38% over the past week, raising the bar for a stock priced at about 114x FY2026 earnings estimates.
Palantir posted Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year-over-year, its highest growth rate ever. EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.28 consensus, and the Rule of 40 score reached 155%. Management lifted full-year revenue guidance to $8.150 to $8.158 billion, calling it its largest-ever full-year revenue guidance raise.
The stock jumped 29.45% on earnings day. It then closed at a record high on October 9 for the first time in 11 months. Since then, momentum has faded, with shares trading at $184.19, up just 3.62% year to date.
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.18B | +84.7% | $8.22B | $12.36B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $0.4072 | +93.9% | $1.6149 | $2.3445 |
The Q3 EPS consensus has drifted from $0.4137 to $0.4072 over 30 days, with two downward revisions. The FY2026 revenue consensus already sits above the top of guidance. The FY2027 revenue range spans $11 billion to $14.6 billion, which shows how far apart analysts are on durability.
Tonight, I’ll be watching the U.S. commercial segment first. That segment grew 28% sequentially in Q2, while bookings hit $2.132 billion, up 153%. The full-year guide calls for more than $3.424 billion, and any raise shows how quickly pilot programs and agent camps are turning into multiyear contracts.
On the government side, U.S. revenue rose 90%. The key test there is whether Maven keeps moving from experiment into programs of record. Maven already has more than 25,000 builders.
On margins, management noted a significant seasonal ramp in Q3 expenses from new-hire starts and marketing initiatives, against adjusted operating income guidance of $1.292 to $1.296 billion. Stock-based compensation, which hit $265 million last quarter, deserves equal attention.
Net dollar retention rose to 157%, and remaining performance obligations reached $4.9 billion. Finally, analysts will be watching Alex Karp’s pledge to grow total revenue “at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months.”
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Earnings-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +46.43% | +29.45% | +7.55% | +12.22% |
| Q1 2026 | +18.07% | -6.93% | +0.07% | -0.28% |
| Q4 2025 | +38.89% | +6.85% | -11.64% | -0.46% |
| Q3 2025 | +25.45% | -7.94% | +0.12% | -4.71% |
On average, shares have fallen by 0.98% within a week of earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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