Live: Will Palantir Smash Q2 Earnings Tonight After the Market Closes?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Palantir’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Palantir’s remaining performance obligations reached $4.9 billion in Q2, up from $2.42 billion one year earlier. Billings also jumped 88% to $2.07 billion, outpacing the company’s already explosive 93% reported revenue growth.

Net dollar retention reached 157%, indicating that existing customers are significantly expanding their spending with Palantir.

Combined with a 24% increase in total customer count to 1,049, the figures suggest its growth is being fueled by both new client wins and deeper adoption among current customers.

Customer demand translated into an exceptional quarter for new contracts. Palantir closed 220 deals valued at $1 million or more, including 98 worth at least $5 million and 73 worth at least $10 million.

Overall total contract value increased 49% year over year to $3.37 billion. The volume of large agreements suggests Palantir’s AIP platform is moving beyond small pilot programs and into increasingly substantial enterprise deployments.

Palantir paired 93% revenue growth with an adjusted operating margin of 62%, lifting its Rule of 40 score from 145% in Q1 to 155% in Q2.

The company also generated $1.22 billion of adjusted free cash flow, representing a 63% margin, and ended the quarter with $9.2 billion in cash and Treasury securities and no debt.

Palantir is demonstrating rare operating leverage even as it continues investing aggressively in AIP and its U.S. expansion.

Palantir’s commercial AI business delivered another quarter of staggering growth. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% year over year and 28% sequentially to $764 million, while its U.S. commercial customer count increased 35% to 653.

Forward demand appears to be equally strong. U.S. commercial remaining deal value climbed 124% to $6.24 billion, while total contract value reached a quarterly record of $2.13 billion.

The accelerating commercial business helps explain why Palantir shares ripped 8% higher following the report.

Palantir Technologies just reported earnings, with shares initially up 6% following the results.

Key Numbers:

• Revenue: $1.935 billion vs. $1.81 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.35 expected

Quick Read:

Palantir crushed expectations, beating revenue estimates by approximately 7% and adjusted EPS estimates by 17%.

Growth accelerated dramatically, with revenue climbing 93% year over year and 18% sequentially, while adjusted EPS surged 156% year over year.

Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction)’s Q2 guide calls for revenue of $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.063 billion to $1.067 billion.

KPIs That Move the Stock

• U.S. commercial growth above the Q1 pace of 133%
• Rule of 40 holding near 145%
• Remaining deal value, last at $11.8 billion

Move Triggers

Shares sit at $126.05, down 30.77% YTD. Aug 7 calls outweigh puts 2.5x. Historically, beats have averaged a 5.7% day-of move.

Reported revenue north of $1.82B with U.S. commercial reacceleration could support upside; a guide-only quarter risks a repeat of Q1’s -6.93% reaction.

With less than 15 minutes to Palantir’s Q2 earnings release, positioning skews decisively bullish.

Same-day July 31 expiration call volume ran 1.83x puts, and the full-chain put/call ratio has firmed to 0.50. Polymarket now assigns 98.1% odds that Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) closes green today.

Price Targets Traders Are Betting On

For the week, crowd probabilities cluster around $129 (80%) and $132 (66.5%), with $141 only a 42.5% shot. Shares last traded at $125.38.

The Overnight Fade Risk

History suggests staying grounded: beats average a +5.7% day-of pop but a -0.54% next-day fade. Q4 2025’s 38.89% beat reversed into an -11.62% one-day drop. Investors will keep an eye on the stock after hours.

Palantir’s Foundry and AIP platforms helped establish the company as an early leader in enterprise AI, but competition is intensifying.

Microsoft Fabric IQ and Copilot Studio, Alphabet’s Vertex AI, and Salesforce’s Agentforce increasingly offer overlapping data integration and AI-agent capabilities.

Microsoft may present the greatest threat because it can bundle these tools into Azure and Microsoft 365, which are already embedded throughout corporate America.

Tonight’s commercial growth and customer metrics should help reveal whether Palantir can preserve its premium positioning as Big Tech races to close the technology gap.

Palantir carries a market cap of nearly $300 billion and a forward P/E around 77. At that valuation, investors are pricing in years of exceptional growth.

Q2 revenue estimates of roughly $1.81 billion imply sequential growth near 10%, down from 19% in late 2025.

If the stock’s current 77x forward P/E multiple contracted to a still-premium 40x forward earnings without any change in forecasts, the stock could theoretically lose around half its value.

That makes continued commercial acceleration and a meaningful increase in guidance especially important tonight, as simply meeting Wall Street’s elevated expectations may not be enough.

Palantir’s own guidance points toward another monster quarter tonight. At the midpoint, the company expects Q2 revenue to climb approximately 79% year over year, while adjusted operating income climbs roughly 130%.

That combination would produce an adjusted operating margin near 59% and a Rule of 40 score of approximately 138%. While slightly below the 145% achieved in Q1, that would still place Palantir among the strongest growth-and-profitability performers in the large-cap technology sector.

Over the past three months, analysts have issued 28 upward revenue revisions and zero downward revisions, lifting the Q2 consensus to approximately $1.81 billion. That sits above the high end of Palantir’s official guidance.

The earnings outlook is similarly bullish, with 26 upward EPS revisions and no cuts. Wall Street now expects adjusted EPS of $0.35, representing 119% year-over-year growth.

U.S. commercial growth could be tonight’s most important metric as Palantir works to reduce its historical dependence on government contracts.

The company continued expanding across private-sector industries in Q2, including a partnership with Kirkland & Ellis and an expanded agreement with Mexican insurer GNP Seguros.

Those wins demonstrate how Palantir’s AI software is spreading across legal services, insurance, fraud detection, underwriting, and other commercial applications.

Another quarter of outsized commercial growth would strengthen the diversification thesis, although controversy surrounding Palantir’s government work remains a potential obstacle to adoption in international markets.

Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR)’s Q2 guide calls for revenue of $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.063 billion to $1.067 billion. Polymarket now pegs the odds of another beat at 94.5%.

KPIs That Move the Stock

• U.S. commercial growth above the Q1 pace of 133%
• Rule of 40 holding near 145%
• Remaining deal value, last at $11.8 billion

Move Triggers

Shares sit at $126.05, down 30.77% YTD. Aug 7 calls outweigh puts 2.5x. Historically, beats have averaged a 5.7% day-of move.

Reported revenue north of $1.82B with U.S. commercial reacceleration could support upside, while maintaining guidance could risk a negative reaction.

Bull Case

• Execution streak: Eight consecutive EPS beats and accelerating revenue growth, capped by 85% Y/Y in Q1.
• AIP flywheel: U.S. commercial grew 133% Y/Y with RDV up 112%, giving forward visibility.
• Best-in-class margins: Rule of 40 at 145, adjusted operating margin 60%, net-cash balance sheet.
• Analyst faith: Consensus target $182.20 vs. current spot price near $126.

Bear Case

• Priced for perfection: P/E 138, P/FCF ~135.
• Insider selling: CTO Sankar disposed of 150,000 shares July 2 at $130.
• Dilution: $201.6M quarterly SBC.
• Reaction risk: Q3 2025’s 25.45% beat still produced a -7.94% day-of drop.

The Numbers to Beat

Wall Street is looking for Q2 EPS of $0.346 on revenue of $1.81 billion, slightly above Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR)’s own guidance of $1.797–$1.801 billion.

The company has strung together nine consecutive beats, and Polymarket’s odds have climbed to 94.5% from 87.5% last week.

KPIs and Positioning

The real tell will be U.S. commercial growth holding above 120% Y/Y and any FY 2026 guidance raise.

Options traders look calm: full-chain put/call sits at 0.48. Shares trade at $125.96, up 2.36% intraday, still down 30.77% YTD.

Trigger Points

History warns beats do not guarantee green: Q1 2026’s 18.07% beat produced a -6.93% day-of move. With a P/E near 138, an in-line quarter without a guidance raise is the biggest downside risk.

Palantir enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report up 2.2% intraday at $125.62. However, the stock is still down 15.73% since its Q1 earnings release despite beating EPS estimates by 18.07%.

Prediction markets assign the company a 92.5% probability of delivering another earnings beat, leaving little room for an ordinary quarter.

The biggest numbers to watch will be U.S. commercial growth, government reacceleration, and whether Palantir can sustain its top-notch Rule of 40 performance.

Tonight’s report could restore confidence in the company’s enterprise AI growth story or give bears evidence of a growth deceleration they have been waiting for.