Anthropic’s Spending Commitments Are Soaring Towards $1 Trillion
Anthropic's IPO filing quietly reveals a web of supplier relationships where the same companies backing the startup are also depending on it to survive, and the numbers behind those deals raise serious questions about who actually holds the risk.
Anthropic filed its amended IPO prospectus with the SEC on November 2, 2026. It reveals, for the first time, an aggregate committed spend of about $895.4 billion, almost all of it for computing power and infrastructure. The October 26 draft left that total out.
The commitments total almost seven times the company’s about $132 billion in cash and short-term investments, and quarterly revenue is $17 billion. Anthropic plans to list on the Nasdaq as ANT, and it says its ability to pay “depends on our ability to generate significant revenue growth.”
Its partners’ stocks moved in different directions on November 2. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) rose 2.2%. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) slipped 0.3%, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) fell 1.18%, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) dropped 2.83%.
Most of the Bill Lands After 2030
Only $69.8 billion is due in the 12 months after September 30. $447.5 billion is expected before the end of 2030, and the rest runs from 2031 to 2045.
More than half the total, $451.2 billion, is leases that have been signed but have not yet started. On those two lines, purchase commitments plus leases not yet started, the combined figure rose from about $105 billion at December 31, 2025 to about $765 billion.
Anthropic’s Suppliers Double as Its Backers
Equipment leases with Broadcom come to $161.2 billion, not including interest. The commitment to Google is now at least $121.3 billion, up $6.8 billion from $114.5 billion in the October filing.
SpaceX’s AI unit, at up to $120.5 billion, outranks Amazon’s minimum of $110.0 billion through April 2036. Microsoft’s at least $44.9 billion just tops private providers Nscale and Lambda, at $44.6 billion and $41.3 billion.
Amazon’s share fits inside an AWS backlog of $578 billion. Microsoft’s is small compared with its $677 billion in contracted revenue it has not yet recorded. Broadcom has the most exposure to Anthropic, because its CEO expects Anthropic to become “our largest XPU customer in 2027.”
Cancelable Commitments Add Flexibility and Uncertainty
About $213.8 billion can be ended or depends on conditions such as the counterparty getting financing, facilities being ready, or regulators signing off. Only $4.3 billion of that falls in the next 12 months. Either side can cancel the SpaceX deals on 90 days’ notice once their locked-in periods end in January and March 2027.
Deals with no fixed dollar amount are excluded from the total. Anthropic estimates them at $150 billion to $175 billion, including $125 billion to $150 billion for Google TPU chips from 2028 to 2031 and more than $20 billion with AMD (NASDAQ:AMD). Adding those deals gives our own estimate of $1.05 trillion to $1.07 trillion, which nobody has signed, and the cancellable portion pulls the real figure the other way.
The filing also warns that a default under certain commercial agreements could trigger cross-defaults under its credit agreement and some convertible notes. In plain terms, falling behind with one supplier could let lenders demand their money back.
Growth Slowed as Compute Costs Jumped
Third-quarter revenue was $16,956 million, up from $11,555 million in the second quarter and $1,382 million a year earlier. Quarter-over-quarter growth slowed to about 47% from 144%.
Computing power expense rose to $9,863 million from $5,558 million, which turned $974 million of operating income into a $567 million operating loss. Anthropic blames $5.0 billion of short-term computing power that “currently costs significantly more” than multi-year capacity, along with $2.0 billion of non-cash donation matching charges. Adjusted operating income, a non-GAAP measure, rose to $2,463 million, but the adjusted margin fell to 15% from 19%.
Investors Are Already Pushing Anthropic’s Valuation Lower
The Wall Street Journal reported that institutional investors want a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, below the about $2 trillion discussed earlier. The listing is targeted for the week before Thanksgiving.
Liquidity of $146.6 billion plus up to $77.0 billion of financing from strategic partners covers the near term. Operating cash flow for the first nine months was only $6.6 billion, and Anthropic’s main concern is that its margins are shrinking while its obligations run to 2045.
Amazon has a more direct claim on Anthropic’s spending. It takes in at least $110.0 billion from Anthropic and expects AWS to grow north of 40% in both 2027 and 2028. A key signal to watch is whether Anthropic’s fourth-quarter adjusted margin climbs back above 19%.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
