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Rocket Lab reports Q3 earnings tonight, and investors will be watching Neutron above all else.
The company’s Q4 2026 launch pad delivery target is approaching fast, which makes any update on Neutron’s development schedule a potential stock-moving catalyst.
Wall Street expects $257.18 million in revenue, compared with management’s guidance of $250 million to $265 million. However, GAAP gross margins are expected to fall to 29%–31%, down from 36.1% last quarter.
The big question tonight: Can management reassure investors that Neutron remains on schedule, or will another potential delay raise concerns about cash burn and future dilution?
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) is expected to post third-quarter earnings today, November 9, at 4:05 PM ET. Shares rose 10.02% today to $58.39 but remain 18.81% lower over the past month.
Q2 revenue reached a record $234.07 million, up 62.0% YoY and ahead of the $230.94 million estimate. GAAP EPS of -$0.08 missed expectations of -$0.0767, hurt by $8.58 million in purchase costs. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.5% from 36.9%.
Backlog hit a record $2.36 billion, up 137% YoY, and CEO Peter Beck highlighted more than $1 billion in new Q3 orders. Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) stockholders approved Rocket Lab’s proposed acquisition on September 24, 2026, with closing expected for mid-2027.
Shares still fell 21.32% in the 30 days after the Q2 report and sit 16.3% lower year to date. Dilution stays in focus after $1.53 billion in ATM proceeds during the first half.
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $257.18M | +65.8% | $959.22M | $1.33B |
| EPS (Normalized) | -$0.0665 | Wider vs. -$0.03 | -$0.2748 | -$0.0912 |
The revenue estimate implies growth accelerating past Q2’s rate. EPS estimates have drifted lower, with two downward revisions in 30 days and the average sliding from -$0.06 90 days ago. The FY 2027 EPS range of -$0.28 to $0.02 shows wide disagreement on the profitability timeline.
Here are some of the top items I’m watching tonight in Rocket Lab’s Q3 earnings:
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -4.3% | +1.45% | -1.06% | -21.32% |
| Q1 2026 | +11.05% | +11.26% | +18.3% | -0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | +8.16% | +2.71% | +1.46% | -7.06% |
| Q3 2025 | +71.29% | -2.48% | -16.51% | +20% |
Over the past year, shares moved 0.55% in the week following earnings on average.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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