Rockwell’s CEO Is Buying the 14% Crash, and His Last Dip Buy Is Up 37%
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Chief executive Blake Moret spent about $1.55 million of his own money on Monday. He bought 4,000 shares of Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK | ROK Price Prediction) at a weighted average of $386.36 through his family trust, two trading days after the stock fell 14.15% in one session.
Rockwell makes the controllers, drives and software that run factory lines, and it has pushed into semiconductor plants, data centers and warehouse automation. That mix produced a sixth straight earnings beat and raised the stock to a 2026 closing high of $495.08.
Shares closed at $389.36 on Monday. That is still 12.3% below the pre-report close and 21% under the high, even though most analysts left their cut targets well above the price. The gap exists because the market punished a revenue shortfall caused by a one-time refund, and a CEO who has mostly sold stock has now made only his second open-market purchase.
A Tariff Refund Turned a Solid Quarter Into a Headline Miss
Fiscal fourth-quarter sales came in at $2.3 billion, missing the $2.41 billion consensus. The stock fell from $443.88 to $381.05. Based on daily closes, that was its worst session since a 17.56% drop in January 2024.
The shortfall came from an $85 million accrual for refunds to customers who paid Rockwell’s IEEPA tariff price increases. The government had returned Rockwell $103 million in tariffs plus $5 million of interest, and the company is passing part of that money back to customers.
The accrual cut about 4 points from growth, which left reported sales up 1% and organic sales up 3%. Without it, sales would have been about $2.42 billion, slightly above consensus.
Adjusted EPS rose 16% to $3.88, beating the $3.69 estimate. Both that figure and diluted EPS of $3.11 include a net $0.11 benefit from the tariff items.
Fiscal 2027 Hinges on 6% to 9% Organic Growth
For fiscal 2027, Rockwell guided to organic growth of 6% to 9% and adjusted EPS of $14.50 to $15.50. That range brackets the $14.92 consensus, so the outlook itself gave investors little reason to sell.
The organic range includes a 100-basis-point boost from the refund accrual, which puts the underlying midpoint at 6.5%. Management also said it is not counting on delayed capital projects being released more generally.
Software & Control drives the outlook. It grew 15% at a 34.0% margin, and the combined semiconductor and data center vertical is expected to grow at a mid-teens rate.
Mining fell about 10% because of project timing, and Lifecycle Services sales dropped 9%. If factory spending stays stalled, the low end of guidance becomes the realistic case.
Moret’s Purchase Is Modest, but His Timing Has Worked Before
His trust now holds 99,285 shares worth about $38.7 million, so the purchase raised his stake by 4%. CFO Christian Rothe’s $2.0 million buy remains the largest insider purchase at Rockwell, and the 700 options Moret exercised at $136.40 in the same filing are a separate transaction.
Moret has mostly sold. In November 2025, he sold 61,700 shares at $391.56, close to the current price.
His only other open-market buy came 12 days after the January 2024 drop, when he bought 3,500 shares at $283.65. Measured on price alone and excluding dividends, that stake is up 37.3%, although one good result does not guarantee another. The Form 4 was filed after Monday’s close, so it played no part in that day’s 3.59% gain.
Analysts Trimmed Targets, and Mizuho Now Sits Below the Stock
Morgan Stanley cut its target to $470 from $520 and kept an Overweight rating. Citi moved to $504, Stephens to $500, and Baird to $490.
Mizuho cut to $375 from $430 with a Neutral rating. Its target sits below the current price, and it represents the bear case that the reset left no upside.
The stock is up 1.06% this year, while the S&P 500 has gained 10.38%. Price targets are estimates and often prove wrong.
Should You Buy or Sell ROK Stock
The case for the stock looks stronger than the selloff implies, because the revenue miss came from a refund Rockwell chose to pay, while adjusted EPS and guidance held up. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow rose 25.26% to $1.701 billion. The quarterly dividend also rose to $1.45 from $1.38.
The risk is that capital projects stay on hold and organic growth lands near the bottom of the range. If that happens, Mizuho’s target looks fair, and the 52-week low of $347.53 becomes the next floor to watch.
Moret’s purchase is too small to prove anything on its own, but it fits the numbers. He sold near this price a year ago and is buying now, and I think the market overreacted to a one-time accounting item.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
