Target Is Up 65.5% This Year, but $1,000 Invested Five Years Ago Is Still Worth Just $779
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If you invested $1,000 in Target (NYSE:TGT | TGT Price Prediction), it unsurprisingly has grown to different amounts after 1, 5, and 10 years, and the stock is up 65.5% this year. It rose from $97.75 at the end of 2025 to $161.78 on Nov. 10, 2026. A $1,000 purchase at the $243.84 close on Nov. 30, 2021, is worth $779 with dividends reinvested, or $663 on share price alone. This year’s gain started from a lower price than the 2021 purchase price.
Pandemic Boom, Inventory Glut, Then a Merchandising Reset
Target got a lift from pandemic-era spending on discretionary goods in 2020 and 2021. When that demand faded, the company was left with too much inventory, heavy markdowns and thinner margins. A 2023 backlash over Pride merchandise, falling traffic, and several years of weak comparable sales followed. In fiscal 2025, revenue fell 2.45% to $104.78 billion.
According to company filings, Michael Fiddelke took over as CEO during fiscal 2025. Target refocused on merchandising, pricing, and technology and cut prices on 10,000+ frequently purchased items. Comparable sales rose 3.8% during the second quarter, and traffic grew 3.6%. Roundel advertising gross billings rose nearly 20%.
A $1,000 Investment Became $779 in Five Years but $2,828 in 10
1-Year Return (from Nov. 28, 2025, dividends reinvested)
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $1,846.79
- Total Return: 84.68%
- S&P 500, price only: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) $1,109.70 (10.97%)
5-Year Return (from Nov. 30, 2021)
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $779
- Total Return: -22.1%
- Annualized Return: -4.87%
- S&P 500 (SPY, price only): $1,630.50 (63.05%)
10-Year Return (from Nov. 30, 2016)
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $2,828.15
- Total Return: 182.81%
- Annualized Return: 10.96%
- S&P 500 (SPY, price only): $3,493.90 (249.39%)
The five-year window starts close to the pandemic-era high, and the shares closed at $83.81 around the November 2025 earnings report. Over the same period, the quarterly dividend rose from $0.90 to $1.16. Reinvesting those payouts bought shares at lower prices, which accounts for the gap between $779 and $663. Target beat the index over one year but trailed it over five and 10 years.
Rebound Momentum Meets a One-Time Tariff Boost
The annualized dividend of $4.64 works out to a yield of about 2.87%. Management also pointed to the dividend’s record of annual increases. Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance is $9.90-$10.90, which puts the stock at about 16 times the center. That guidance includes a $1.65 per-share tariff refund that is unlikely to repeat.
Future returns will hinge partly on whether traffic gains continue and the higher-margin home and apparel categories recover. Earnings without the refund are another variable. The merchandising chief said home and apparel performance “is not where it needs to be.” The stock is valued at about 16 times the center of guidance. The one-year, five-year, and 10-year returns each show a different starting price.
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David Beren has been a Flywheel Publishing contributor since 2022. Writing for 24/7 Wall St. since 2023, David loves to write about topics of all shapes and sizes. As a technology expert, David focuses heavily on consumer electronics brands, automobiles, and general technology. He has previously written for LifeWire, formerly About.com. As a part-time freelance writer, David’s “day job” has been working on and leading social media for multiple Fortune 100 brands. David loves the flexibility of this field and its ability to reach customers exactly where they like to spend their time. Additionally, David previously published his own blog, TmoNews.com, which reached 3 million readers in its first year. In addition to freelance and social media work, David loves to spend time with his family and children and relive the glory days of video game consoles by playing any retro game console he can get his hands on.
