A $1,000 Stake in Deere From a Decade Ago Is Now Worth $7,882, and the Stock Is Up More Than 40% This Year

A $1,000 purchase of Deere (NYSE:DE | DE Price Prediction) at the Nov. 30, 2016 close of $100.20 was worth $7,882 after reinvesting dividends, at the Nov. 12, 2026 close of $678.79. The shares are also up 45.8% from the 2025 year-end close of $465.57. What follows covers what drove that result and where the stock stands now.

Green Tractors, Precision Tech and a Construction Boom

Deere sells the John Deere line of tractors, combines, and sprayers, along with construction, forestry, and turf equipment, and the loans that finance them. Over the decade, it built more technology into its machines. Farmers using its See & Spray system, which sprays only the weeds a camera picks out, are seeing more than 50% herbicide savings, and about 520 million acres are connected to its software.

Farm demand weakened in fiscal 2025, when revenue fell 11.7%, and net income dropped 29.2%. In 2026, construction equipment offset much of that, with segment sales up 34%, 29% and 18% in the first three quarters on infrastructure and data center work. Management raised its fiscal 2026 net income outlook to $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion and said it thinks 2026 is the bottom of the farm equipment cycle.

$1,000 Grew to $7,882 While the Market Lagged

1-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $1,427.90
• Total Return: 42.79%
• S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), same period): $1,107.90 (10.79%)

5-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $2,018.80
• Total Return: 101.88%
• Annualized Return: 15.1%
• S&P 500 (SPY, same period): $1,620.30 (62.03%)

10-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $7,882
• Total Return: 688.2%
• Annualized Return: 23.1%
• S&P 500 (SPY, price only, from Nov. 14, 2016): $3,495.60 (249.56%)

On share price alone, the decade holding would be worth $6,774, so reinvested dividends added $1,108. The quarterly dividend rose from $0.60 in 2016 to $1.62. Deere also bought back $1.138 billion of stock in fiscal 2025 and $697 million in the nine months ended Aug. 2, 2026. The five-year return trails the ten-year rate.

Deere Now Trades Near 38 Times Trailing Earnings

The stock is valued at about 38 times trailing earnings and 30 times forward estimates, with a 0.94% dividend yield. The 52-week range runs from $450.77 to $719.50.

The bullish view depends on farm demand recovering in 2027 while construction stays firm. Early planter and sprayer orders were up mid-single-digits, though management described the outlook as a “measured recovery.”

The case against centers on farm income, interest rates, and trade policy, and Deere expects U.S. and Canada large ag sales to be down 15% to 20% this year and direct tariff costs of about $1.1 billion in fiscal 2026. It also faces an FTC lawsuit over the right to repair.

Over the decade, Deere went through a farm downturn that reduced annual profit, and the 10-year annualized return was 23.1%.

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