Your Family’s Bills Are Still Rising — But the Government Can’t Tell You By How Much
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On November 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% jump in September. Electricity rose another 0.9%, and food climbed 0.5%. The report left out the number most families actually remember: how much prices are up from a year ago.
That gap goes back to last fall. During the government shutdown, BLS did not collect CPI data from October 1, 2025, through November 12, 2025, so for most series it never published October 2025 index levels. With no starting point, the agency will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for most categories. Inflation can still be measured. The familiar annual headline just has a hole in it, and the hole comes as price pressure builds again.
Rebuilding the Annual Number Points to Inflation Well Above 2%
You can work around the gap with the index levels BLS did publish. The all-items Consumer Price Index was at 337.511 in October, compared with 315.664 in October 2024. This amounts to a two-year rise of about 6.9%, or roughly 3.4% a year. September, the last month with a clean comparison, shows prices up about 3.7% from a year earlier. Both figures sit well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Paychecks Are Losing the Race Again
Real average hourly earnings, which adjust wages for inflation, slipped to 11.26 in October from 11.38 in January and February. In plain terms, pay bought less in the fall than it did in the winter. Gasoline averages $4.00 a gallon, compared with $2.78 in mid-January. Carrying a credit card balance costs an average 21.19% APR. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September.
Why a Missing Number Makes Rates Harder to Predict
The Fed already raised its target range in September, lifting the upper bound to 4.00% from 3.75%. After the October report, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) added another rate hike to its Fed outlook, and Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) wrote that the data tilts the Fed toward more hikes in 2027. The Fed’s preferred measure points the same way. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures prices rose 0.3% in September, putting the index at a record.
Without an annual headline, each monthly reading carries more weight, and monthly figures are noisy. That makes rate expectations jumpier. The 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the direction for mortgage rates, hit 5.31% on October 5 and then fell to 4.88% by November 9. The October CPI report offered bond investors little relief.
Households are the clear losers. Anyone whose raise, rent increase or budget plan depends on a year-over-year inflation figure is working without one this month. Low-income beneficiaries get some relief: the maximum federal SSI payment for an individual rises to $1,029 in 2027, following a 3.6% adjustment.
What to Watch Before Year-End
Keep an eye on next month’s CPI report. The shutdown affected October and November 2025 indexes, so the November comparison may also come with cautions. If monthly inflation holds at 0.4% or higher, the Fed’s last meeting of the year turns into a decision on raising rates. The 10-year yield climbing back above 5% would show the bond market has reached the same conclusion, and mortgage and car loan rates would rise with it.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
