Marvell Is Still Up 81% This Year. Can MRVL Stock Hit $300 by 2029?
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
A hard autumn for chip stocks hasn’t erased one of the sector’s standout gains of the year. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) stock is up 81% year to date (YTD) to $153.93 in afternoon trading. That price includes a 6% drop from the prior close, as a broad semiconductor selloff hits Marvell and its peers. Technology is the weakest sector in the market, and the NASDAQ 100 is down 2% as NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) keeps sliding.
Hitting $300 by 2029 would require Marvell stock to gain 94.9% from its current price. Even so, $300 sits below two numbers already tied to the company: Marvell’s 52-week high is $329.73, and its average analyst price target is $310.94.
Whether Marvell gets there likely depends on custom AI silicon. Fiscal 2029 is the year the company’s management has pointed to for that business to scale the most.
What Powered Marvell’s 81% Run This Year
On August 27[1], Marvell reported Q2 FY2027 results with revenue of $2.739 billion, up 36.5% year over year (YoY). Data center sales at the company jumped 46%[1] to $2.17 billion, or 79% of total revenue. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at Marvell came in at $0.94[1], exceeding the $0.93 estimate.
Marvell management raised its outlook alongside the report. The company now expects fiscal 2028 revenue of approximately $18 billion[2]. That is up from a prior $16.5 billion[2], and the company said its custom business should more than double in fiscal 2028 and “accelerate significantly in fiscal 2029.”
The quarter also brought an expanded custom silicon partnership. The partner is Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unit Google, including a warrant that lets Google acquire up to 7%[1] of Marvell shares tied to revenue milestones. During the call, CEO Matt Murphy said most of that work is already reflected in next year’s outlook, adding that “the big impact would be in 2029 and beyond.”[2]
How Broadcom and AMD Compare With Marvell This Year
Shares of Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are up 0.1% YTD to $344.39, leaving the custom AI chip leader with little to show for the year. That lag stands out against Broadcom’s fundamentals, since its AI semiconductor revenue rose 221%[3] to $16.7 billion in Q3 FY2026, reported on September 2.
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stock is up 144% YTD to $522.93, a far larger gain than Marvell has posted. Both Broadcom and AMD are trading sharply lower in the chip selloff, so neither peer is offering Marvell any shelter.
Marvell operates differently from both. The company is a fabless chip designer centered on data center connectivity, including optical digital signal processors and Ethernet switches, along with custom chips built to each hyperscaler’s design. By contrast, Broadcom pairs custom accelerators and networking with an infrastructure software arm, while AMD sells its own Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, increasingly bundled into Helios racks.
Bull and Bear Case for Marvell Hitting $300
The bulls start with Wall Street’s support for Marvell. The company carries 8 Strong Buy ratings, 35 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings. At a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21x, Marvell offers the bulls a valuation they can defend if its growth outlook holds.
Murphy spoke on the call. He added that, in the fiscal 2029 time frame, “on the custom side, these numbers would be a lot larger than anybody has been modeling so far.”[2] That comment frames 2029 as Marvell’s potential breakout year, though it stays a scenario until orders show up in reported results. Catching an AI chip name years before the headlines is its own skill, and we cataloged the traits past winners shared in a free playbook.
The bears have a concrete list of their own. Marvell’s disclosures flag customer concentration, dependence on the data center market, trade restrictions on Chinese customers and the risk that customers build chips in-house. Competition adds pressure: Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated on September 2 that his company’s custom chip capabilities are “very deep moats for any competitor to cross.”[4]
Marvell’s Path to $300 Runs Through Custom Chip Orders
For Marvell, the question is whether custom AI chip orders speed up the way management described for fiscal 2029. Strong bookings could support the case for $300, while slower orders or more in-house design at hyperscalers could keep the stock well short of it. Traders can also watch for an easing in the semiconductor selloff that has hit Marvell, Broadcom and AMD alike.
A recovery in chip sentiment would let Marvell’s fundamentals drive the stock again, but a longer slide could pressure it regardless of orders. This uncertainty indicates that a cautious approach to MRVL stock is a good idea until the chip selloff ends.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk. His work has appeared in 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, MarketScreener, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, and others. With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
