XRP Hit $1.66 and Fell Back. Was That the Top?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) rose from its cycle low of $0.9877 on August 17 to $1.66 on August 21, rallying 70% in 4 days. However, the coin couldn’t hold that level, retracing in hours to trade at $1.44 on August 22. 

Today, XRP trades near $1.39, well below the $1.66 level but still far above where the rally started. With the coin falling by over 13% after rallying 70% on August 22, is XRP unable to maintain this level or the coin simply needs a steadier run?

Why Did XRP Fall After Reaching $1.66?

XRP started its run to $1.66 at $0.9877, which was the cycle low set on August 17. By August 21, XRP price rallied from that cycle low to a three-month high of $1.66, a 70% increase to its market price. 

The rally began as the White House met with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other crypto executive and President Trump called on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. A 30-year Treasury yield also fell, which freed up money into riskier assets like XRP. Bitcoin also broke above $77,000 in the same window, pulling money into altcoins like XRP. 

However, the rally did not last, with XRP experiencing a flash crash that resulted in its price falling to $1.44 in minutes on August 22. The crash occured after a $1.35 billion liquidation hit the broader crypto market, and exchanges began closing leveraged long positions because they lacked the collateral to cover potential losses.  

Exchanges added near $500 million in XRP to the market within minutes because of the forced liquidation and that crashed the XRP price to $1.44 before the coin’s price stabilized. 

What Would XRP Need to Recover Above $1.66?

XRP would need more than one catalyst to recover above the $1.66 level and maintain it. We have identified 4 catalysts that stand out.

CLARITY Act

XRP has rallied every time there has been progress around the CLARITY Act, with the most recent example being President Trump’s comment to Congress to pass the bill while hosting crypto executives at the White House.

The President’s comment was one of the significant catalysts behind XRP’s rally to $1.66 between August 17 and August 22, showing the importance of optimism around the bill to XRP’s price performance. 

The Senate holds a cloture vote on September 15, a procedural motion to end all debate and subject the bill to a final vote. The cloture vote needs 60 votes and Republicans pushing the bill only hold 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats or some Independents would need to support it.

If the cloture vote is passed, XRP’s price performance would rally better than any other progress around the bill has moved the coin’s price this year. 

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin contributed to XRP’s rally to $1.66 when it broke above $77,000, since a shigher Bitcoin price frees up capital that flow into large altcoins like XRP. XRP gained 20.7 against Bitcoin’s 10.6% during XRP’s rally to $1.66 on August 22, meaning XRP’s demand still tracks Bitcoin’s risk appetite. 

While a Bitcoin selloff would not stop XRP from attempting to reach $1.66 again, XRP would lose one of the main drivers of its first rally to the level. 

Clearing $1.66 Without Another Leverage Flush

XRP’s first rally to $1.66 happened too fast for the coin to hold the level. XRP’s rose by 70% in 4 days and that quickly filled derivative markets with levelraged longs that could not survive the slightest pullback. 

If XRP attempts the level more slowly, with record ETF inflows and spot demand, fewer positions would suffer forced selling than a rally based on shrot covering and derivatives leverage. 

Exchange reserves are already showing a sign of the shift, with XRP holdings at Binance, Upbit and Bithumb falling by roughly 240 million tokens as coins are moved into wallets and away from exchanges where they could fun leveraged trades.

Spot XRP ETFs

Spot XRP ETFs significantly contriuted to XRP’s first run to $1.66, with money flowing into the funds pulling the same amount out of the open market. The funds recorded a net inflow of $39.78 during the week of the rally, which was their highest weekly inflow since May, and a single day on August 21 recorded $18.38 million.

If XRP would attempt breaking the $1.66 again depend largely on fresh demand, improved spot ETF inflows like the $56.86 million recorded so far in August would be an ideal pace to improve. 

Was $1.66 the Top of XRP?

XRP’s retracement from $1.66 to $1.44 happened after the broader crypto market experienced a wave of forced selling and exchanges closed leveraged positions because of the lack of collateral to cover potential loss. Price retracment caused by forced selling is not a reflection of what the market thinks the $1.66 level is worth on its own. 

With the Cloture vote less than three weeks away and XRP ETFs inflows recording $56.86 million so far in August, the next few weeks could determine whether XRP run to $1.66 is a short-term top the coin could revisit or the ceiling of this recovery. 

Our view would be change if XRP loses the $1.29 to $1.40 support it built after the flash crash, ETF inflows pace return toward the $3 million to $5 million weekly average last seen in early August, and the September 15 cloture vote fails to pass. If all these events occur, we would be more confidenyt that $.166 marked the top of this rally. 

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