Can XRP Break Out of Its Triangle Above $1.54?

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, known as Ali Charts, has observed that XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is forming a symmetrical triangle on its hourly chart. He suggests that an hourly close above $1.54 could lead to a price increase of about 10%. This prediction, posted on September 30, 2026, has left XRP holders wondering which way the triangle will break.

As of October 3, XRP is trading around $1.48, down approximately 4% in the past 24 hours and about 4% over the last week. This performance is the weakest among the four major cryptocurrencies. XRP now needs to climb 4% to reach the critical breakout point Ali identified.

XRP’s Symmetrical Triangle Signals a Move but Not Its Direction

A symmetrical triangle forms when a cryptocurrency makes lower highs and higher lows at the same time. Traders draw lines connecting the peaks and lows, creating a shape that narrows over time.

This pattern indicates that buyers and sellers are evenly matched, and a significant move is likely once one side takes control. However, it can break either upward or downward, which is why Ali emphasized the importance of an hourly close—it’s the price XRP holds when a one-hour trading candle ends. A quick spike above $1.54 that drops back before the hour ends won’t count.

A 10% Breakout From $1.54 Runs Into XRP’s $1.70 Ceiling

If XRP does break out and rises 10% from $1.54, it will target around $1.69. This price is close to levels that have previously acted as resistance, where selling pressure halted XRP’s rise—specifically near $1.70 in August and $1.66 in September.

As a result, even if XRP breaks through $1.54, it may face challenges at the $1.70 mark, where those who bought near the highs might choose to sell and recoup their initial investments.

More XRP Is Ready to Trade on Binance

Adding to the downward pressure, more XRP is available to trade on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange. The XRP Scarcity Index from CryptoQuant fell to -0.94 on September 30, its lowest since January 2025.

This means more XRP is ready to be traded than at any point in the last 20 months. Binance’s total XRP holdings have dropped about 20% since November 2024, so the index drop reflects coins moving into trading wallets rather than a larger overall balance.

A greater amount of XRP available means that buyers will need to invest more to push the price above $1.54, even as XRP ETFs continue to receive inflows despite the price struggles.

Evernorth Lists on Nasdaq on October 8 With 473 Million XRP

The timeline also adds another layer to the situation. Evernorth’s merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II is expected to close on October 7, with shareholders approving the deal on September 30.

Evernorth plans to list its shares on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 8, starting off with about 473 million XRP valued at roughly $700 million.

However, since Evernorth already owns these tokens, the listing won’t introduce any new buying on its first day. Moreover, XRP’s recent 4% drop suggests traders may be waiting for the merger to complete rather than buying beforehand.

Which Way Will the XRP Triangle Break?

Currently, the XRP triangle appears to be leaning toward a downside breakout. XRP is trading about 4% below the $1.54 trigger highlighted by Ali, there is more XRP ready for trading on Binance, and even a successful breakout could meet resistance at the $1.70 level, which has previously prevented upward movement. For the bullish scenario to unfold, XRP needs to demonstrate a reversal.

So, which way will the triangular pattern resolve? An hourly close above $1.54, followed by a smooth listing from Evernorth on October 8, could help reach Ali’s 10% target. Conversely, if XRP falls below $1.40, around 5% lower, the triangle may break to the downside, putting the mid-August low near $1.00 back in play.

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