Can Solana Reach $295 Again? What It Would Take

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) needs to climb 138% from around $124 to regain its all-time high of $295, which was reached on January 19, 2025. Recent months have reignited discussions among holders, as Solana has risen 16.3% over the past month. This rally has narrowed Solana’s 2026 loss to just 2.7%, bringing the coin close to even for the year, yet it remains far from its former glory.

A Return to $295 Puts Solana’s Value at $173 Billion, Above Its Peak

Currently, Solana’s market cap—calculated by multiplying its price by the 588 million SOL tokens in circulation—stands at roughly $72.8 billion. To reach $295, Solana’s market cap would need to rise to about $173 billion. This compares to the roughly $140 billion market cap it commanded during its peak. A key factor here is that Solana pays its validators in newly minted tokens, and locked tokens continue to unlock over time.

For Solana to rise to $173 billion, its value would need to increase by approximately 25% from the peak, which raises the stakes. Right now, the entire cryptocurrency market is valued at about $2.9 trillion, meaning Solana represents around 2.5% of that total. Achieving a market cap of $173 billion would require either a significant increase in Solana’s share of the market or substantial growth across the entire crypto space—preferably both.

The 2025 Record Came on $33 Million a Day in Fees, and Fees Now Run Near $1 Million

The previous record was largely fueled by the rise of the TRUMP memecoin, which debuted on the Solana network in January 2025. This memecoin trading pushed daily fees to about $33 million at the peak—a level that has not yet returned. Currently, daily fees hover around $1 million, just 3% of the previous highs, meaning the demand that drove SOL to $295 has diminished considerably.

Moving forward, potential buyers may be more institutional investors and funds than small-time traders. Spot Solana funds currently hold around $1.4 billion and have been on a positive streak, attracting capital for 12 consecutive weeks. Tokenized stocks on the Solana chain have also surpassed $465 million. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, set to begin activating on September 28, aims to reduce transaction finalization times and support further network growth.

The 68% Rally Came in Two Months, and Last Year’s Buyers Are Still 40% Down

Solana has surged 70.6% over the past 90 days and 67.8% over the last 60 days, with most of these gains coming in the past two months. The coin’s price closed around $74 in both June and July, showing little movement in July. The jump from $74 to $124 occurred during August and September, which can indicate a rapid price gain that may lack solid support.

When the price rises quickly, late buyers have less to cushion against potential pullbacks and often sell quickly at the first sign of trouble. This was evident the week of September 21, when Solana failed to close above $120 three times before breaking through.

Moreover, Solana’s longer-term performance adds pressure above its current price. The coin is still down 40.5% over the past year, so buyers who entered the market in September 2025 remain in the red. As the price climbs back, these holders may look to sell, creating downward pressure on the price.

Can Solana Reach Its $295 All-Time High by the End of 2026?

In our view, the chances of Solana reclaiming its all-time high by December 31, 2026, are low. The required 138% price increase would necessitate a market value that exceeds what Solana had at its peak, while the demand that supported the previous peak has now shrunk to just 3% of its size. Additionally, the recent rally has resulted from a rapid two-month increase, yet many long-term holders remain underwater on their investments.

To make this jump possible, Solana first needs to stabilize at approximately $120, which has shifted from a ceiling to a new support level. Next, it must surpass its opening price from 2026 to finish the year positively.

A close above $200, about 62% higher than current levels, would signal a genuine attempt to reach $295. On the contrary, if the price falls below the June close around $74, approximately 41% lower, it could derail any hopes of a significant recovery, pushing the all-time high further out of reach.

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