Every $10 XRP Prediction Rests on One Number Most Holders Have Never Checked. Ripple Controls It.
XRP bulls chasing a $10 price target are working with a number that tells only half the story, and the half they are ignoring is under Ripple's direct control.
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Calls for XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) to soar to $10 frequently appear in online discussions and on social media. However, many of these conversations overlook a critical number. At a price of $10, the XRP currently in circulation would be valued at approximately $631 billion. In contrast, when considering all XRP that exists, the total value soars to almost $1 trillion, and Ripple, the company behind XRP, holds most of the coins that make up the difference.
As of October 12, 2026, XRP trades at around $1.40, down 6.55% over the past week. However, it has surged by 39.71% in the last 60 days from its low of $1.01. This performance comes amid a 23.38% year-to-date decline, and it’s down 44.32% from the $2.53 price it saw on October 12, 2025.
So, which figure should investors use to gauge a potential $10 target for XRP? And is it feasible for XRP to actually reach that price?
XRP’s Two Supply Numbers Give Two Very Different Values
When discussing XRP’s value, it’s crucial to differentiate between two supply metrics: circulating supply and total supply. Circulating supply refers to the XRP available for trading, currently about 63.1 billion coins. Total supply, on the other hand, includes all XRP, including coins locked away and not yet available for trading, totaling around 99.99 billion coins. The maximum supply, the cap on how many XRP can ever be created, is set at 100 billion.
Market value, commonly called market cap, is calculated by multiplying the price by the circulating supply. At a price of $1.40, XRP’s market value is roughly $88.5 billion, a figure you’ll find on most crypto price websites.
In contrast, fully diluted value calculates the price multiplied by every existing coin, including those still locked away. At the same price of $1.40, XRP’s fully diluted value is estimated to be about $140.2 billion. The difference between these two figures represents the value of about 36.9 billion XRP that has yet to enter the market.
What It Would Take for XRP to Hit $10
If XRP reached $10, its circulating supply would translate to a market value of about $631.3 billion, significantly higher than its current $88.5 billion. When considering the total supply, the valuation would approach nearly $1 trillion.
For comparison, this fully diluted valuation would equate to about 60% of Bitcoin’s current market value of approximately $1.68 trillion. If investors focus only on circulating supply, they might overlook the impact of the remaining coins that will be released on a set schedule. For long-term investors, fully diluted value better reflects what price XRP could realistically reach, as it accounts for the supply pressures that could affect its future price.
How Ripple’s Escrow Keeps Adding to XRP’s Supply
An escrow account is a secured holding account that releases funds only under specific conditions. Ripple controls most of the difference between XRP’s circulating and total supply, with a substantial amount held in escrow. This setup allows Ripple to gradually release coins over time. Consequently, the supply against which XRP’s price is measured continues to grow, meaning every new coin that hits the market needs a buyer willing to purchase it at the current price.
However, not all released coins are sold immediately. Ripple provides a schedule detailing when these coins will be released, helping traders anticipate new supplies. While this keeps the market informed and prevents surprises, it doesn’t guarantee how much of the newly released XRP will be available for trading or how quickly it will enter the market. This uncertainty plays a significant role in determining which $10 valuation—based on circulating or total supply—may become a reality.
Can XRP Reach $10?
Based on supply dynamics, the likelihood of XRP reaching $10 seems low. Reaching this target would require the circulating supply to be valued at about $631 billion, and as escrowed coins are released, the target would move toward $1 trillion. Therefore, buyer demand must outpace the supply Ripple introduces over time, and that demand must sustain itself over several years.
For current holders, this means a gradual upward journey. XRP must first reclaim its beginning-of-2026 price of $1.84, about 31% higher than its current value. Next, it would need to exceed the $2.53 mark from the same time last year, requiring an 81% increase. Otherwise, price gains may fade, as XRP’s gains diminished after its peak of $1.66 on September 23. A consistent closing price above $1.84 would signal that buyers can absorb the increasing supply of XRP.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
