Ethereum Fell 10% in October, but Social Sentiment Is Still Positive. Is the Crowd Too Early?
Ethereum's social media crowd is buzzing with optimism even as ETH slides deeper into October losses, but the people actually moving money tell a very different story.
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Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) has dropped 10.2% since October 1, 2026, but social media sentiment remains optimistic. According to Santiment, a prominent crypto analytics firm that monitors social media discussions and blockchain activities, 59.1% of posts about ETH over the latest 24 hours are positive.
Ethereum started October at $2,705 and is now trading around $2,428 as of October 17, down 0.8% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency peaked at $2,777 on October 2 before plummeting to a low of $2,313 on October 15, a day when ETH led the market in liquidations, the forced closures of leveraged trades that ran out of collateral.
While sentiment appears hopeful, the persistent decline raises one question. Is the crowd too early on Ethereum?
ETH Posts Lean 59% Positive, More Upbeat Than Bitcoin’s
Santiment’s analysis shows that 59.1% of ETH posts are bullish, compared with 57.9% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). Furthermore, Santiment’s intensity metric—which measures how strongly posts express sentiment—ranks ETH at 54.1%, while Bitcoin scores 52.2%. This indicates that, despite ETH’s weaker price, its community remains more optimistic than Bitcoin’s.
In the past month, ETH has lost 1.1%, while Bitcoin has gained 6.8%. Additionally, for 2026, ETH is down 18.4% compared to Bitcoin’s 6.8% decline.
Santiment Treats Crowd Optimism During a Drop as a Caution Sign
Sentiment readings reflect what people say, not necessarily what they do with their assets. A participant can express bullish sentiment one day and sell their ETH the next.
Santiment has consistently viewed crowd optimism during a downturn as a potential warning, whereas fear can indicate more favorable entry points. When most holders remain hopeful for a rebound, it often suggests that those likely to panic and sell have not yet exited their positions, potentially leading to further declines.
Much of the current optimism may stem from Ethereum’s summer rally, as ETH is still up 26.7% over 60 days from $1,917 on August 18. This is likely fresh in many holders’ minds, overshadowing the current downturn.
Ether ETFs Lost Money on Five of Six Trading Days
In contrast to bullish sentiment on social media, fund investors appear to be withdrawing. The U.S. spot Ether ETFs, which trade on U.S. stock exchanges and hold ETH directly, experienced net outflows on five out of six trading days from October 8 to 15, as reported by SoSoValue. The most significant outflow occurred on October 14, with $130 million exiting the funds, followed by another $60 million on October 15.
A brief inflow on October 13 lasted only a day. The cumulative net inflow—the total amount invested in the funds since their launch minus withdrawals—dropped from $13.3 billion on October 8 to $13.0 billion on October 15, reflecting a decrease of approximately $306 million. Total ETF assets stood at $15.3 billion on October 15.
Interactive Brokers, one of the largest online brokers in the U.S., has enabled clients to stake Ethereum, which involves locking ETH to help secure the network in exchange for rewards. This new option might attract new buyers eventually, but the ETF flows have not yet shown any sign of recovery.
Is the Crowd Too Early on Ethereum?
It appears that the crowd might indeed be too early. Optimistic voices in the community contrast sharply with the outflow of funds, and historical trends suggest financial actions usually carry more weight than social sentiment. Santiment’s framework also suggests current Ethereum sentiment could be a warning sign; those buying solely on this mood may be entering ahead of further selling pressure.
For the crowd’s optimism to prove correct, ETF flows would need to turn positive for several sessions, nudging cumulative net inflow back above $13.3 billion. ETH would also need to close above $2,705 to target the $2,777 high. If negative flows persist and ETH dips below its $2,313 low, sentiment may shift from hope to fear, which, according to Santiment, could offer a more advantageous entry point for buyers.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
