Has XRP Bottomed? We Asked Claude AI Where the Selling Stops
XRP has shed over 60% from its all-time high, and now a key support level sits between holders and a potentially painful drop toward $1.00. Claude AI ran the numbers, and the odds of a clean hold may surprise you.
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Has XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) finally bottomed out? According to Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, there’s a 40% chance that XRP’s low of $1.25 from October 18, 2026, marks the cycle’s bottom. If this level fails, Claude suggests that selling could slow around $1.12.
XRP is trading at $1.31 after a 12.1% drop this month, about 64% below its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.
However, there is a silver lining: the recent lows are trending upward, with XRP holding a higher low of $1.28 during the week of October 19. This raises the question: Has XRP truly found its floor, or can sellers still drive the price lower?
XRP’s $83 Billion Valuation Covers More Tokens
XRP’s market cap stands at $83.2 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, ahead of Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), which has a market cap of $61.8 billion.
Many investors overlook XRP’s supply side. Currently, around 63.13 billion XRP are in circulation out of a total cap of 100 billion. This means that XRP’s fully diluted valuation — which accounts for every possible token that could exist — is about $131.8 billion.
Ripple holds a significant portion of the uncirculated supply in escrow and releases tokens gradually over time. As the circulating supply grows, each price level requires more investment to maintain than in previous cycles. Therefore, maintaining a floor at $1.25 in October 2026 will require accounting for a larger supply than in earlier years.
Over the past year, XRP has underperformed its peers, dropping 44.9% while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell 25.2% and 37.8%, respectively.
ETF Inflows and Record Wallets Haven’t Stopped XRP’s Decline
Recently, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold XRP and let investors buy shares through a broker saw inflows of about $708,500 on October 21 and $3.55 million on October 22, according to SoSoValue. Total net inflows reached $1.80 billion by October 22, with net assets at $1.49 billion.
However, these inflows appear to have limited impact. On September 25, the funds recorded their largest inflow of the past month, $22.6 million, which temporarily lifted XRP to $1.63. But by October 23, XRP had fallen from $1.50 on September 23 to $1.31, and the funds had a $2.47 million outflow on October 16. Although these inflows could potentially slow selling, they are unlikely to reverse the trend.
Moreover, the XRP Ledger now boasts a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets, according to Santiment. This growth in wallet numbers may indicate a broader holder base, yet it has coincided with a 28.8% decline this year, suggesting that wallet growth hasn’t halted the price drop.
Additionally, central banks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are expanding a cross-border stablecoin initiative that includes Ripple, Visa (NYSE: V | V Price Prediction), and Mastercard (NYSE: MA). However, Ripple’s specific role and any direct use of XRP remain unclear, so Claude considers this news only in the most optimistic projections rather than relying on it for forecasts.
Claude AI Projects XRP’s Selling to Slow at $1.12
Claude emphasizes that $1.25 is XRP’s crucial support level. If XRP closes below $1.25, it could quickly drop to $1.15. Claude predicts sellers may lose momentum in the $1.10 to $1.15 range, roughly 15% below the current price, with $1.00 as the next major reference point. The model estimates a 20% chance of a drop below $1.00.
For December 31, 2026, Claude’s scenarios range from $0.95 in the bear case to $1.45 in the base case and $2.10 in the optimistic bull case.
Has XRP Bottomed at $1.25, or Is More Selling Ahead?
XRP may not have fully bottomed yet. Claude sees the coin as near a bottom but not confirmed, estimating a 55% chance it trades below $1.25 before the end of 2026, making a retest more likely than a clean hold.
A confirmed bottom could follow a specific pattern: first, XRP needs to recover its 20-day average of $1.37, then close above its 50-day average of $1.41, and finally achieve a weekly close above $1.45. If XRP closes above $1.45 on a weekly basis, it would suggest the bottom is likely in. Conversely, a daily close below $1.25 would bring the $1.12 area back into focus.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
