What Would XRP Be Worth if It Won Just the $900 Billion Remittance Market?
XRP bulls point to the $900 billion remittance market as proof the token is wildly undervalued, but the math behind how payment firms actually use XRP tells a very different story.
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XRP holders (CRYPTO:XRP) have long touted its potential as the key to the approximately $900 billion migrants send back home each year. XRP is trading at $1.32, down from $1.63 on September 25 but up from a low of $1.25 on October 18. This marks a 12.8% decline over the past month and a 28.8% decline year-to-date.
The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), a United Nations agency, reports that global remittances nearly doubled over the past decade, reaching around $729 billion in 2025. Some estimates suggest the total could be even higher, supporting the widely discussed $900 billion figure. So, what could XRP be worth if it captured that entire market, or even a part of it?
XRP’s Growing Supply Raises the Bar for Any Price Target
XRP has around 63.13 billion tokens in circulation, giving it a market capitalization of about $83.3 billion. The total supply is capped at 100 billion tokens. If all tokens were in circulation at the October 23 price, XRP’s valuation would rise to $131.8 billion.
This difference highlights the potential for dilution. Ripple releases tokens from escrow over time, so the same price produces a larger market value as more XRP circulates. For instance, if XRP returned to its all-time high of $3.65 on July 17, 2025, it would require significantly more investment than what drove it there the first time.
Payment Firms Hold XRP for Minutes, Not Months
A token’s “velocity” refers to how frequently it changes hands. Payment firms typically buy and sell XRP within seconds or minutes to facilitate money transfers. Because of this rapid turnover, XRP’s value at any given moment remains well below the total annual flow of funds, which is why a $1 billion transaction doesn’t add $1 billion to XRP’s market value.
The table below shows how a share of IFAD’s $729 billion in remittances translates into the XRP price under different market-share scenarios.
| Share of Remittances | Annual Flow | XRP Price if Held a Year | XRP Price if Held a Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | $7.3 billion | $0.12 | $0.0003 |
| 10% | $72.9 billion | $1.15 | $0.003 |
| 25% | $182.3 billion | $2.89 | $0.008 |
Even a 10% market share supports a price of about $1.15 if every dollar were held in XRP for a full year, which is less than XRP’s $1.32 price. A 25% share could raise the price to $2.89 per XRP if held for a year, still 21% below the $3.65 record. If the full $900 billion was also held for a year, XRP could theoretically be valued at around $14.26.
However, since payments are typically cleared in minutes, the “held a day” column provides a more accurate depiction of how banks and money transfer companies utilize XRP. In that case, a 25% share supports less than one cent per XRP, and the full $900 billion amounts to about $0.04 per XRP.
Spot XRP ETFs Provide the Long-Term Demand Remittances Lack
A spot XRP ETF directly holds XRP and is traded on stock exchanges. ETF investors tend to hold their shares longer, creating stable demand that the remittance market doesn’t provide. As of October 22, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.80 billion in cumulative net inflows.
However, ETF inflows have slowed down. Total net assets fell to $1.49 billion from $1.77 billion on September 25. The latest session brought in only $3.6 million, and several October sessions saw no net flows.
The highest inflow day of the past month was $22.6 million on September 25, aligning with XRP’s monthly peak near $1.63. This timing highlights how buying activity has influenced price movements.
Can Remittances Alone Raise the XRP Price?
The answer is no. Remittance volumes alone are unlikely to drive XRP’s price above its current level, let alone back to $3.65—176.5% higher. Even a 25% share would support a value below the record, especially since payment firms don’t hold XRP for long.
To reach the $3.65 target, XRP would first need to regain its September high of $1.63—23.5% higher—and then surpass the $2.40 level traded in October 2025. A daily ETF inflow above $22.6 million combined with a close above $1.63 would signal strong buyer interest in holding XRP. Without both conditions, achieving a significantly higher price seems unlikely.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
