How Low Could Avalanche (AVAX) Go After an 11% Drop in a Week?
AVAX just shed nearly 11% in a week while ETF demand stalls and regulatory tailwinds fade fast. Several key support levels now stand between Avalanche and a deeper collapse, and breaking the wrong one could trigger a painful chain reaction.
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Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) has fallen 10.9% over the past week, closing at $8.91. This downtrend also includes a 15.7% drop over the last two weeks and a 2.9% decline in just the past 24 hours. At the start of October, AVAX was priced at $10.93, meaning it has given back most of its September gains.
Long-term trends aren’t looking good either. AVAX is currently trading 93.9% below its all-time high of $144.96, reached on November 21, 2021. Investors are closely watching three key support levels: $8.85, $6.04, and $5.68, which mark AVAX’s 30-day low, 90-day low, and 2026 low, respectively. So, how low could AVAX go before buyers step back in?
AVAX’s $3.95 Billion Valuation Carries a Supply Problem
Market capitalization, calculated by multiplying the coin’s price by its circulating supply, provides a useful way to compare cryptocurrencies. AVAX’s market cap was $3.95 billion, making it the 28th largest cryptocurrency.
However, many investors overlook supply dynamics. Currently, about 443.9 million AVAX tokens are in circulation out of a total cap of 720 million. The fully diluted valuation, including all minted tokens (including locked ones), stands at $4.19 billion. If you include all 720 million tokens, the valuation would be about $6.4 billion.
The circulating supply has increased since its 2021 peak because staking rewards and token unlocks continuously release new AVAX into the market. As a result, reaching previous price levels now requires more total investment. This influx of new tokens adds selling pressure, helping to explain why AVAX rallies have quickly diminished this year.
The AVAX Support Levels Sellers Could Test Next
Support levels are prices where buyers have previously stepped in. Currently, AVAX’s first support level is its 30-day low of $8.85, and it is trading just above this critical point. If it breaks below this level, it could lead to further declines.
Next, there’s a support range between $7.17 and $7.53. AVAX hit $7.53 in February and reached $7.17 the week of September 20, before climbing to a weekly high of $11.48.
After that, the 90-day low of $6.04 is another key level to watch. AVAX posted weekly closes between $6.11 and $7.61 from late June through August, suggesting many buyers entered the market in this range. The last significant floor is the 2026 low of $5.68, recorded on June 19.
The SEC’s Crypto Proposal and AVAX ETFs Have Failed to Stop the Slide
On August 18, the SEC proposed new crypto regulations that could exempt certain offerings from securities registration, set clearer disclosure requirements for issuers, and clarify when a token is no longer under SEC oversight. The public can comment on the proposal for 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register.
Avalanche, along with other blockchain projects and the Blockchain Association, has supported the proposal, according to reports from October 21. However, because it is still only a proposal, the SEC needs another commission vote before it finalizes these regulations. Unfortunately, AVAX continued to decline after this news.
Fund buyers have also pulled back. U.S. spot Avalanche ETFs, which hold AVAX directly, reported cumulative net inflows of $31.6 million as of October 22. The last inflow happened on October 8, when they brought in $2.5 million; since then, all sessions through October 22 registered zero net flows.
Meanwhile, total net assets fell from $61.5 million on October 6 to $51.4 million by October 22, and AVAX closed lower at $10.96 the week after that last inflow.
Bitcoin’s Dominance Leaves AVAX Vulnerable
The entire crypto market lost 4.2% in just 24 hours. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell 0.9% for the week, trading at $80,483, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) declined 1%. AVAX’s steep 10.9% weekly drop was far worse than both, indicating that sellers are focusing on the smaller coin.
Bitcoin currently holds 59.5% of the crypto market, showing investors still favor the larger coin. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, is currently neutral at 46. Sellers haven’t shown signs of panic, leaving room for a larger sell-off.
How Low Could AVAX Go From Here?
AVAX seems poised to fall below the $8.85 support level as ETF demand has slowed and the SEC’s regulatory news didn’t provide the anticipated boost. A drop below this level could first take AVAX to the $7.17 to $7.53 range. If Bitcoin also declines, the 90-day low of $6.04 becomes a likely target, while a drop to the 2026 low of $5.68 would likely require a significant market sell-off, a less probable scenario.
A clear bottom could emerge if price stabilizes and ETF inflows resume. For AVAX to regain ground, it needs to close a trading week above its October 1 open of $10.93, and spot ETF inflows must resume after the recent stagnation following October 8. Conversely, if AVAX closes a week below $7.17, it may signal a downward test of $6.04.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
