Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Over? Galaxy Thinks It Might Be
Galaxy Digital just declared the crypto winter over and told clients to buy Bitcoin now, but the price keeps sliding lower while major traders bet against it. Something does not add up.
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Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY | GLXY Price Prediction) believes the worst of the crypto downturn is behind us. In a report titled Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC, shared on October 26, 2026, Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, claimed that the Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) bear market ended in June. He wrote that Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase, when patient buyers absorb coins from exhausted sellers.
Bitcoin’s price has yet to reflect that view. Bitcoin is trading at $80,543, up 0.7% over 24 hours. However, it’s down 3.6% for October and remains 36.1% below its peak of $126,080 from October 6, 2025. The October 26 close at $80,029 was the lowest level in a month.
While a leading crypto firm signals a bottom has been reached, the price keeps drifting lower, and U.S. buyers seem hesitant, with major traders on one derivatives exchange taking short positions. Has the selling run its course, or is Galaxy jumping the gun?
Galaxy’s Analysis Relies on Three Key Indicators
The first is the 50-week moving average. This average represents Bitcoin’s average weekly closing price over roughly the past year. Traders use it to separate bull and bear markets. Bitcoin had consecutive weekly closes above this average through October 18.
The second is the behavior of long-term holders. Galaxy looked into long-dormant wallets—those that haven’t moved coins in years—and found these holders have sent fewer coins each year since 2024. This is seen as a bullish sign because less old supply hitting the market could let fresh demand drive prices higher.
The third is the timing of the market low. Galaxy dates the low to June, when Bitcoin posted its lowest close of the year, $58,566 on June 30. It also called U.S. debt and deficits a long-run positive, noting that AI and quantum computing do not pose a threat to Bitcoin’s protocol for now.
Galaxy has since reported a third-quarter net income of $323 million, reversing an $85 million loss the quarter before. Its crypto trading volumes rose 12%, its average loan book rose 27% to $1.8 billion, and it announced a new $200 million share buyback. CEO Mike Novogratz credited “significant appreciation” across their investment portfolio.
Galaxy’s Signals Have Weak Spots
Galaxy has a vested interest in the market’s direction. The firm operates a trading desk, manages a lending portfolio, and offers ETFs, so its profits rise when more investors buy crypto and take out loans against it. However, a Galaxy executive noted during an earnings call that “volumes in the narrow niche crypto market obviously are suppressed and are a bit challenged at the moment.”
The data regarding dormant wallets primarily indicates selling activity rather than incoming buying. Bitcoin could exhaust its sellers and still decline in price if fresh buyers remain absent. This metric also mixes activities; an old coin moving could mean a sale, a custody upgrade, or a consolidation of wallets.
On-chain data also has its limitations. Much trading happens inside exchange order books that never reach the blockchain, since exchanges track trades in their internal systems. So a quiet blockchain doesn’t show whether buyers are accumulating more positions or staying on the sidelines.
The 50-week average moves slowly, so Bitcoin can stay above it even as short-term trends turn bearish. Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day average of $81,999 and its 50-day average of $81,806, although it remains 9.4% above its 200-day average of $72,990. Rallies above long-term averages have held only with strong new buying.
Fresh Money Has Yet to Show Up for Bitcoin
New cash moves prices, and spot Bitcoin ETFs—funds that hold Bitcoin directly and trade like stocks—are the clearest gauge of it. However, these funds reported $253.5 million in net outflows between September 28 and October 26.
Daily flow data reflects low buying confidence. These funds saw inflows of $526.6 million on October 19 and $528.4 million on October 21, followed by significant outflows of $635.5 million on October 22 and $137.9 million on October 23, before regaining a modest $110.3 million on October 26. Their total net assets fell from $110.8 billion on October 5 to $102.8 billion by October 26 because of falling prices and capital exits.
Two other indicators agree. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and foreign exchanges, has been negative throughout October, indicating that Bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase than elsewhere—a sign that U.S. buyers are pulling back.
On Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange for perpetual futures, the largest traders have net short positions, meaning they benefit if Bitcoin’s price drops. Typically, an accumulation phase is marked by steady ETF inflows and a positive premium, but so far inflows have been volatile, and the premium remains negative.
Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Coming to an End?
We think Galaxy may be right that June marked Bitcoin’s low point. Bitcoin has surged by 26% over the last 90 days and is trading above its 200-day moving average. While older holders seem to be selling less, the influx of new capital, which typically drives up prices, hasn’t yet materialized. So it’s still too soon to say the Bitcoin bear market is over.
Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $58 billion on October 21 and slipped to $57.3 billion by October 26. If inflows surpass the October 21 figure and Coinbase Premium turns positive, it could signal new buyers entering the market. However, if Bitcoin closes below the 200-day moving average of $72,990, it would fall below the summer rally trend line, suggesting the bear market is still in play.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
