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SK hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) is expected to report Q3 results at about 4:00 PM ET tonight. After the stock fell 24% over the past month, tonight’s report will show whether AI memory demand still supports the company’s $1 trillion valuation.
Record Profits Collide With a Cooling AI Trade
The company’s second-quarter revenue came in at KRW 79.32 trillion, up 256.8% year over year, while operating profit rose 557.2% to KRW 60.54 trillion. Operating margin hit 76% as HBM, AI server DRAM, and eSSD led price increases across DRAM and NAND. Cash reached 88 trillion won, raising net cash to 69.4 trillion won.
Shares now trade at $146.50, down from $191.56 a month ago and below the company’s recent 52-week high of $199.87. The stock still carries a forward P/E of just 5, against an average analyst target of $247.
Wall Street’s Numbers Point to Record Results Tonight
| Metric |
Q3 2026 Estimate |
QoQ Change |
FY 2026 Estimate |
FY 2027 Estimate |
| Revenue |
KRW 99.68T |
+25.67% |
KRW 343.92T |
KRW 530.57T |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$6.2529 |
N/A |
$26.684 |
$34.476 |
Analysts project FY2027 revenue 54.27% above FY2026, while EPS grows a slower 29.2%. That gap signals some models build in margin normalization. FY2027 EPS estimates span $23.081 to $44.393, revealing deep disagreement about cycle length.
What I’m Watching Tonight: HBM4 Ramp and Long-Term Contracts
Here are some of the top items I’m watching for during earnings tonight:
- HBM4 volume. SK hynix began mass HBM4 shipments in the second quarter, citing customer-required speeds and industry-leading power efficiency. The focus will be on how quickly production ramps and how much HBM4 adds to the fourth-quarter mix.
- Supply agreements. The company completed long-term agreements with around 10 customers and continues talks with major clients. Investors will focus on whether new multi-year deals lock in volume and pricing, since that directly addresses the cyclical fears weighing on the stock.
- Conventional memory. Management described a structural shift in which AI and conventional memory demand expand together as agentic AI broadens. The question is whether DRAM and NAND price increases carried through the third quarter.
- Capex discipline. SK hynix promised to expand capacity while sticking to capex discipline. Any spending step-up frames free cash flow, which currently supports a 23.85% free cash flow yield.
SKHY’s Dramatic Post-Earnings Move Last Quarter
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Earnings-Day Move |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q2 2026 |
N/A |
-2.6% |
+17.52% |
+19.12% |
+27.01% |
Shares rose 19.12% in the seven days after Q2 earnings following the only quarter reported since the U.S. listing.
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