Bitcoin vs the S&P 500: $10,000 Invested 10 Years Ago, Which Won?
A $10,000 bet placed at the right moment could have turned into life-changing money, but the same bet placed just a few years later tells a completely different story about which asset actually wins.
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If you had invested $10,000 in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) on November 1, 2016, it would be worth about $1.06 million today. That is nearly 29 times what the same amount would have earned in an S&P 500 fund. Nonetheless, investors who bought Bitcoin in 2021 or 2025 have not fared as well and fall behind the index. So, the outcome of the Bitcoin vs S&P 500 debate hinges on the timing of the investment.
Bitcoin trades at $78,050, down 7.8% over the past month. This follows a fluctuation from around $86,490 on October 4 to approximately $77,223 by October 30. Bear in mind that Bitcoin is also down 38.1% from its record high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. Such sharp declines lead many to question whether Bitcoin can still outperform a standard index fund.
Investor Jordi Visser highlighted this comparison on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast in August, calling Bitcoin “the S&P 500 of 10 years from now.” To test this claim, we examined $10,000 investments in each asset from a decade ago.
$10,000 in Bitcoin in 2016 Is Now Worth About $1.06 Million
Bitcoin closed at $734. At Bitcoin’s October 31 close of $77,474, that initial $10,000 investment has transformed into about $1.06 million.
In contrast, the same $10,000 invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), which tracks the 500 largest U.S. companies, gained 258.1%. This means that amount has become roughly $35,800—significantly less than Bitcoin’s returns.
These SPY figures only account for price changes and do not include dividends. SPY pays quarterly dividends, which added about $7.58 per share over the last year. Even reinvesting these dividends does not bring SPY close to Bitcoin’s gains.
| Start Date | BTC Start Price | $10,000 in BTC Now | $10,000 in SPY Now (Price Only) | SPY Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 1, 2016 | $734 | About $1.06 million | About $35,800 | +258.1% |
| Nov. 1, 2021 | $61,042 | About $12,700 | About $16,400 | +64.3% |
| Nov. 1, 2025 | $110,067 | About $7,000 | About $11,100 | +10.6% |
Bitcoin Buyers From 2021 and 2025 Trail the S&P 500
Bitcoin achieved most of its outstanding growth during its early years. From $734 on November 1, 2016, it surged to about $7,060 a year later, crossing $10,000 for the first time on November 27, 2017. However, those who entered the market later experienced a much different reality.
For instance, on November 1, 2021, Bitcoin was priced at $61,042, close to its peak that year. An investment made on that day is currently worth about $12,700. Meanwhile, the same investment in SPY rose 64.3% to about $16,400, even before dividends.
The picture worsens for those who bought Bitcoin on November 1, 2025, when it was selling for $110,067. That investment has now shrunk to about $7,000, reflecting a loss of about 30%. Conversely, SPY grew 10.6% over the same period, turning $10,000 into about $11,100.
Bitcoin’s Drops Ran Far Deeper Than the S&P 500’s
Bitcoin’s remarkable journey over the past decade has seen significant fluctuations. In the last year, its price fell from around $110,500 on November 2, 2025, to a low of about $58,566 on June 30, a 47% decline. Although Bitcoin has bounced back 23% in the last 90 days, these sharp declines show it’s a more volatile investment than SPY.
In contrast, the S&P 500 enjoyed a smoother ride. Over the past decade, its daily returns had a standard deviation of about 1.13%, meaning daily price movements generally stayed around 1% in either direction. SPY ended higher in all three investment periods outlined above.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Which Won Over the Past 10 Years?
In a 10-year comparison, Bitcoin clearly outperformed the S&P 500 for early investors. However, for those who entered the market in 2021 or 2025, the S&P 500 proved a better choice, offering steadier growth with less stress. Bitcoin’s market value skyrocketed from around $11.7 billion in November 2016 to about $1.57 trillion now, making another huge upward surge over the next decade less likely.
That said, Bitcoin could regain momentum. Trading above its 200-day average of $73,136 but below its 50-day average of $81,906, Bitcoin’s future path remains uncertain. A rise above $81,906 could signal a rebound, while a drop below $73,136 may mean continued struggles against the S&P 500 for a second consecutive year. So, while Bitcoin triumphed over a ten-year period, the S&P 500 has the upper hand over five- and one-year windows.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
