Solana Is 39% Away From Passing XRP by Market Value. Could It Happen by the End of 2026?

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) is just 38.6% away from surpassing XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) in market value. At XRP’s current price, this figure highlights the Solana vs. XRP gap in simple terms. Market value refers to the total worth of all tokens in circulation.

SOL is trading at $97 after a 19.5% drop over the past month, while XRP trades at $1.25, down 17.6%. Both cryptocurrencies have declined, keeping XRP the fifth-largest by market value at $79 billion and Solana seventh at $57 billion. SOL reached a high of $121.52 on October 4 but dropped to a low of $95 by October 29.

The gap between the two cryptocurrencies was narrowest at the start of October but has since widened again. So, can Solana close the gap and pass XRP by December 31, 2026?

How Much Must Solana Climb to Overtake XRP?

For SOL to match XRP’s current market value, it needs to rise about 38.6% to around $134. Conversely, XRP would need to drop 27.9% to about $0.90, assuming SOL’s price stays steady.

The last time SOL closed above $134 was on January 18, when it finished at $136. It reached its highest close in the past three months at $122.08 on September 25. To move forward, SOL must break its recent high and maintain that upward momentum.

How Has the Gap Between Solana and XRP Evolved?

One factor that could help Solana narrow the gap is supply dilution. Unlike XRP, Solana has no maximum supply, so new tokens continually enter circulation. This dynamic means each dollar of SOL’s price represents more market value than before.

For instance, SOL closed at $127 on January 1, valued at $68.9 billion, but at a lower close of $118 on September 30, it had a slightly higher market value of $69.4 billion.

In January, SOL needed to reach $147 to reach a market value of $79.6 billion. Now, around $134 would allow it to match XRP’s current standing. However, XRP also faces a supply issue, as only 63.4 billion XRP are circulating out of a maximum of 100 billion. Its fully diluted valuation stands at $124.7 billion, compared to Solana’s $61.5 billion.

History has been on XRP’s side. SOL hasn’t surpassed XRP in market value since at least September 2025. On October 2, 2025, SOL closed at $235, valued at $127.6 billion, while XRP stood at $181.9 billion. The gap has varied widely in 2026, from a required gain of 96.5% for SOL on February 12 to just 30.9% on October 7.

Do Solana’s Payment Launches Offset Its ETF Outflows?

Polygon Labs added Solana to its Open Money Stack on October 29, which enables businesses to accept deposits in banks, cards, or cryptocurrencies and send payments using stablecoins like USDC, USDT, or PYUSD. According to Solana Foundation spokesperson Jamal Raees, Solana has processed over $5.7 trillion in stablecoin transfers so far this year.

Additionally, Ondo Finance launched its Intelligent Portfolios on Solana on October 29, tokenized model portfolios that include three strategies tracking BlackRock (NYSE: BLK | BLK Price Prediction), after the initial launch on September 24. However, despite these developments, SOL closed at $95 on the day of the launch, down from $102 the day before, suggesting the announcements did not boost the price.

On the downside, SOL has experienced repeated ETF outflows. On October 29, spot SOL ETFs, which hold the token for stock-market investors, lost $28 million, marking the fourth straight session of net outflows, according to SoSoValue.

Cumulative net inflows dropped from $1.61 billion on September 30 to $1.48 billion by October 29. Only two days during this period saw net inflows, with the larger one just $1.3 million on October 2. As a result, investment demand needs to pick up before SOL can rise by 38.6%.

Does Ripple’s Bank Charter Help XRP More Than Solana’s News Helps SOL?

On October 28, Ripple received final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the federal regulator that charters national banks, for Ripple National Trust Bank. This charter enables Ripple to hold digital assets for clients and manage reserves for RLUSD, its stablecoin, which is now available on platforms like Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD), Chain, and Bitstamp.

Though XRP closed at $1.24 on October 29—down from $1.32 the day before—XRP ETFs recorded an inflow of $8 million that day, increasing cumulative inflows from $1.79 billion on September 30 to $1.81 billion. XRP funds have been attracting money, while SOL funds have been withdrawing.

Can Solana Surpass XRP by December 31, 2026?

Solana is unlikely to pass XRP by December 31. To do so, SOL must reach about $134 while XRP stays at $1.25, or XRP must fall to around $0.90 while SOL holds steady. First, SOL needs to reverse its ETF outflows and convert them into inflows. It must also recover to its 50-day average closing price of $109 and its September high of $122.08.

XRP has less room for decline, with its one-year low at $0.99 from August 16. A drop to $0.90 could push it to new yearly lows. If SOL’s outflows continue, it might drift toward its 200-day average of $89, potentially widening the gap further. The only chance for closing the gap appears to hinge on SOL closing above $122.08 before December 1, so will the Solana vs. XRP gap close by December 31?

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