Prediction: This ‘Boring’ Dividend ETF Secretly Rides the AI Trade and Out-Earns Your High-Yield Fund by 2036
DGRO markets itself as a sleepy dividend fund, but its rulebook quietly funnels money toward mega-cap tech, and the compounding math behind that combination may rewrite which ETF actually wins over the next decade.
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:DGRO) is sold as the sleepy cousin at the dividend family reunion. The reality is different. DGRO is a rules-based portfolio that intentionally excludes the highest yielders, weights holdings by dividend dollars paid, and ends up owning a serious slug of mega-cap tech. If you bought DGRO as a hedge against the AI trade, you are partly in the AI trade.
The Rule That Looks Like a Bug
DGRO screens U.S. stocks for a five-year dividend growth history, a payout ratio below 75%, and kicks out the top 10% by yield. A 9% payout looks generous until the check gets cut in half. DGRO’s methodology treats extreme yield as a warning label rather than a feature.
The weighting scheme is the second twist. Holdings are sized by dividend dollars paid, not by yield percentage. A company writing a billion dollars a year in dividend checks earns a bigger slot than a smaller company with a flashier yield.
Because the biggest dividend dollar payers in America are increasingly giant technology and semiconductor businesses, the fund’s largest positions are JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction), JNJ (NYSE:JNJ), and AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), each at 3%.
The AI Trade Wearing a Cardigan
Add up all the semiconductor stocks, and you get roughly 10% of the fund sitting in those names. That is direct exposure to the capital equipment building the data centers, dressed in a boring wrapper.
DGRO returned 72% over five years and 258% over ten. For comparison, SPY returned 68% and 241% over the same windows, and Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) delivered 61% and 236%. A dividend fund quietly matched the S&P 500 over a decade and beat the marquee high-yield competitor. That is the AI trade doing work on the sly.
The Crossover Mechanism
The 2036 argument is arithmetic. A high-yield ETF pays you a bigger check today off a payout base that grows slowly. DGRO pays you a smaller check today off a payout base that has been compounding. DGRO’s annual dividend went from $0.93 in 2019 to $1.45 in 2025, with a trailing twelve-month total now at $1.48. Extend a compounding line long enough, and it crosses a flat line.
The permanent edge is cost. DGRO charges an expense ratio of 0.08%. Every basis point saved compounds inside the fund forever. Against a high-yield competitor charging more, DGRO starts each year with a structural head start.
What Would Have to Be True
The crossover thesis is conditional. For DGRO to out-earn a static high-yield fund by 2036:
- Payout growth continues at a similar pace. Dividend growth is not guaranteed. If mega-cap tech names cut or freeze buybacks and dividends during a recession, the compounding curve flattens.
- The methodology keeps catching the right companies. The rule works because dividend-dollar weighting has funneled money toward profitable tech and financials. If future dividend leadership migrates to slower-growth sectors, the AI tailwind fades.
- High-yield alternatives keep failing to grow payouts. If SCHD’s underlying earnings accelerate, the gap closes.
The Tradeoffs
DGRO’s current yield is modest. The annualized forward basis near $1.32 against a $78 share price is not a retiree’s income solution today. Distributions are also lumpy: the roughly $0.45 payment in December 2025 was followed by two roughly $0.33 quarterly checks.
And the tech tilt cuts both ways. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) move together in a semiconductor drawdown.
Who This Fits
DGRO belongs in the core of a long-horizon portfolio for someone who wants growing income, does not need maximum yield today, and is willing to accept quiet mega-cap tech exposure. If your goal is the biggest check that clears next month, DGRO is the wrong tool.
If your goal is a bigger check in 2036 paid out of a portfolio quietly participating in the AI capex cycle at eight basis points, DGRO is doing more work than its reputation suggests.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth and cyclical stocks that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as cryptocurrencies and penny stocks.
