$10,000 in VGT the Day ChatGPT Launched Is Now $30,500. QQQ Turned the Same Money Into $26,100
ChatGPT's launch date turned out to be one of the most consequential moments for tech ETF investors, but the fund that won the last three years did it by taking on a risk most people overlook when they compare expense…
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A $10,000 investment in the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:VGT) on Nov 30, 2022, the day OpenAI released ChatGPT, would now be worth $30,482 with dividends reinvested. The same money in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) grew to $26,095, which puts VGT ahead by $4,387.
That’s 34% a year for VGT and 28% for QQQ over 3.85 years.
Both funds are cheap, easy to trade, and full of the same megacap names. What separates them is how much of your money sits in a few AI chip and software companies, and that concentration is what you take on if you buy VGT today.
Three Years of Near Ties Before Spring 2026
At the end of 2023, QQQ led by $38, at $14,089 versus $14,051 for VGT.
The lead changed hands from year to year. QQQ won 2023 with 55% against 53%, and VGT won 2024 with 29% against 26%.
By the end of 2025, VGT led by just $757. At the end of March 2026, the lead was $397.
Nearly all of the gap opened after April 1, 2026. VGT returned 18% in April and 17% in May. QQQ returned 16% and 11% in those months.
Greater AI Weightings Explain the Gap
Fees explain almost none of it. VGT charges 0.09%, and QQQ charges 0.18%. On a $30,000 balance, that difference comes to about $27 a year, far too little to produce a four-figure gap.
Fund weightings drive the gap. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) makes up 18% of VGT but only 8% of QQQ.
NVIDIA, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) together make up 45% of VGT, compared with 21% of QQQ.
VGT tracks a single sector index and owns none of the retail, search, social media, or electric vehicle giants in QQQ’s top ten. When AI hardware led the market this spring, VGT had more of its money in the leaders.
Bigger Gains Came With Deeper Losses
In the 2025 selloff, VGT fell 27% while QQQ fell 23%. The same concentration that lifted VGT this spring made the losses worse when chip stocks sold off.
VGT falls more like a concentrated stock portfolio than a broad index fund, while QQQ’s consumer and communications holdings soften semiconductor declines. Owning both funds adds less diversification than it seems, because they hold the same megacap core.
VGT completed an 8-for-1 share split in April 2026. Its $127 price therefore can’t be compared with prices or price targets from before the split.
VGT is up 38% this year against 22% for QQQ. If that gain draws you in, you are buying after the gap has already opened.
Where VGT’s Concentration Fits in a Portfolio
VGT acts like a concentrated position, and another drop like the 2025 decline would hit a portfolio built around it harder than one built around a broader fund. Close to half of what you buy is exposure to NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft, which is why some investors look past the chip names to the power, cooling and networking suppliers behind the AI expansion (we featured seven of those in a free report here).
QQQ has the broader base of the two for the core growth part of a portfolio. It still leans heavily on tech, but its consumer, communications, and healthcare holdings give it a wider base when market leadership changes.
Three things could reverse the ranking: a move by investors out of semiconductors, a pause in data center spending by the big cloud companies, or fresh strength in the consumer and advertising names VGT does not own. For investors near retirement, the 2025 decline shows how much more risk VGT carries as a replacement for QQQ or a broad index fund than as a complement.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
