Shopify’s Post-Earnings Drop Is Rippling Through Popular ETFs

Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) shares are down 9.51% in today’s regular session, trading at $141.37 as of 10:31 AM ET. The company reported third-quarter results before the open, and the sell-off has spread to several ETFs. If you own a Nasdaq-100 fund, you own a piece of this drop. If you own a plain S&P 500 or total-market fund, you probably don’t. The difference comes down to where Shopify is incorporated.

Revenue Narrowly Missed and Merchandise Growth Slowed

Third-quarter revenue came in at $3.742 billion, just below the $3.744 billion consensus, even though sales grew 31.58% year over year. Adjusted EPS of $0.49 beat the $0.4598 estimate. Gross profit grew 28.04%, slower than revenue, because the mix continues changing toward lower-margin payments revenue.

Wall Street’s biggest worry is slowing merchandise sales, a point Barron’s noted this morning. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), the total value of goods sold on the platform, rose 29%. That compares with 32% growth in the second quarter. With the stock trading at a P/E of about 155, even a small slowdown matters.

Which Popular ETFs Hold Shopify

Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) has the most direct exposure among the major funds. Its latest filing, dated June 30, 2026, lists 25,888,276 Shopify shares worth $2.96 billion at the time. That is a mid-sized position in a fund led by NVIDIA at 7.60% and Apple at 6.67%.

What the Drop Cost QQQ Holders

Based on the reported weight, today’s fall takes roughly 0.057 percentage points off QQQ’s return. In dollar terms, that’s about $5.74 on a $10,000 position. Across the fund’s reported share count, the drop is worth about $385 million in market value, assuming the share count hasn’t changed since June.

QQQ is still up 0.65% today because its larger holdings are rising. Shopify’s actual weight may differ from the filing, since the fund’s position was valued well below today’s price at midyear. The fund is down 8.54% over the past month, so pressure on growth stocks was already building before this report.

Overlap Risk for Retirement Index Investors

Many retirement savers pair a total-market fund with a Nasdaq-100 fund to add growth. That combination adds Shopify exposure that the core fund leaves out, along with larger weights in names both funds already hold. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft together make up about 18.6% of QQQ, and all three are also top holdings in broad U.S. index funds.

Growth-heavy funds also tend to fall together when highly valued stocks reset. Check your 401(k) and IRA statements for any Nasdaq-100 funds, international growth funds, or e-commerce funds. Those are the places Shopify exposure tends to show up.

What Shopify Holders Should Watch Next

Management expects fourth-quarter revenue growth in the low-thirties percentage range and gross profit growth in the high-twenties. Free cash flow margin reached 22% this quarter. The next key readings are holiday-season GMV and whether that gap between revenue and gross profit growth continues widening. For QQQ holders, Shopify’s results matter less than how the fund’s semiconductor and megacap holdings perform.

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