Retiring is a big life change with serious financial implications. Many people are reluctant to take the plunge because they are concerned that their money will not last. This is the case for a Reddit user’s friend.
The original poster (OP) said that his friend is around 70. The OP is trying to convince the friend to retire, but the friend is deeply worried that following the 4% rule will leave him short of money later in life. So, can the friend trust the 4% rule, or should he follow a different path?
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a rule of thumb designed to make retirement savings last for the full length of retirement. A retiree withdraws 4% of the portfolio balance in the first year, then adjusts that dollar amount upward each year to keep pace with inflation. The premise is that sticking to this safe withdrawal rate gives retirees roughly a 90% chance of their money lasting at least 30 years. The rule traces back to financial planner William Bengen, who in 1994 published his findings in the Journal of Financial Planning after analyzing U.S. market data going back to 1926. His original math actually produced a rate of 4.15%, which was rounded down to 4% when published, and that round number stuck. Bengen later revised his recommendation upward to 4.7%, calling the original figure a worst-case-scenario floor rather than a target.
The OP’s friend carries two distinct concerns. The first is whether he can realistically hold withdrawals to 4%, or whether actual living costs will force him to take out more. The second is that even a disciplined 4% rate may not be enough protection, given that both of his parents lived into their 90s. With that kind of family history, he may need his savings to stretch for 25 years or longer from today.
How can you make sure your money lasts in retirement?
The friend’s caution is well-founded. Morningstar’s 2025 State of Retirement Income report, published December 3, 2025, set the base-case safe withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a balanced portfolio targeting a 90% probability of success over a 30-year horizon. That figure rose modestly from the 3.7% rate in the prior year’s research, thanks to improved capital-market assumptions, but it still sits below the traditional 4% threshold. Morningstar’s analysis assumes a 30-year spending window and does not factor in Social Security or other non-portfolio income sources.
There is a meaningful silver lining for someone already at age 70. Because the 3.9% base case is built around a 30-year horizon (roughly age 65 to 95), a retiree who starts later faces a shorter planning window, and Morningstar’s research explicitly notes that older retirees can reasonably spend at rates above 3.9% precisely because their time horizon is compressed. That calculus shifts further in the friend’s favor if he incorporates flexible strategies. Morningstar found that combining a “guardrails” withdrawal approach with delayed Social Security benefits can push the starting safe withdrawal rate as high as 5.7% in some scenarios. A third option, building a 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ladder, could support an inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4.5%, though that approach exhausts principal entirely by year 30.
Social Security is also worth quantifying directly. According to Social Security Administration data through December 2025, 70-year-old retired workers receive an average benefit of about $2,275 per month. For someone who delayed claiming, that translates to more than $27,000 per year in inflation-protected income before a single dollar of portfolio is touched. Each dollar of guaranteed income reduces the portfolio draw required to cover living expenses, which in turn makes any given withdrawal rate far more sustainable.
The concern about needing to withdraw more than 4% to cover day-to-day expenses is a genuine warning sign. If a retiree cannot comfortably live within a safe withdrawal rate, the honest conclusion is that the portfolio may simply not be large enough yet. Waiting and continuing to save, even for another year or two, can meaningfully reduce the annual drawdown required and give the nest egg more time to grow.
The bigger picture on longevity is also worth keeping in mind. The CDC reported that U.S. life expectancy at birth reached 79 years in 2024, its highest level on record. That population-wide figure understates the reality for someone who has already reached 70 in good health. Financial planning experts recommend using the upper end of actuarial tables rather than the average, and for a 70-year-old, planning to age 90 or beyond is prudent. With a family history of parents living into their 90s, the friend is right to stress-test his plan against a longer timeline.
The most practical step the OP’s friend could take is a conversation with a fee-only financial advisor. A professional can assess whether retirement is truly feasible, model scenarios based on actual spending needs and longevity expectations, and design a withdrawal strategy that goes beyond blanket rules of thumb. At age 70, getting personalized guidance sooner rather than later can make the difference between a secure retirement and a stressful one.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to include context from Bengen’s original 1994 research, which produced a 4.15% rate (rounded to 4%) and has since been revised to 4.7%, and to add Social Security Administration data showing that 70-year-old retired workers average about $2,275 per month in benefits as of December 2025. The Morningstar TIPS ladder figure of 4.5% was also added as a third flexible withdrawal option.
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