Retiring is a big life change with serious financial implications. Many people are reluctant to take the plunge because they are concerned that their money will not last. This is the case for a Reddit user’s friend.
The original poster (OP) said that his friend is around 70. The OP is trying to convince the friend to retire, but the friend is very concerned that following the 4% rule will leave him short of money later in life. So, can the friend trust the 4% rule, or should he follow a different path?
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a rule of thumb designed to make retirement savings last for the full length of retirement. Under it, a retiree withdraws 4% of the portfolio balance in the first year, then adjusts the dollar amount upward each year to keep pace with inflation. The premise is that sticking to this safe withdrawal rate gives retirees roughly a 90% chance of their money lasting at least 30 years. The rule traces back to financial planner William Bengen, who in 1994 analyzed U.S. market data going back to 1926 and found that inflation-adjusted withdrawals of 4% survived every 30-year rolling period in the historical record, including the Great Depression.
The OP’s friend has two distinct concerns. The first is whether he can realistically hold withdrawals to 4%, or whether his actual living costs will force him to take out more. The second is that even a disciplined 4% rate may not be enough protection, given that both of his parents lived into their 90s. With that kind of family history, he may need his savings to stretch for 25 years or longer from today.
How can you make sure your money lasts in retirement?
The friend’s caution is well-founded. Morningstar’s 2025 State of Retirement Income report, published in December 2025, set the base-case safe withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a balanced portfolio, targeting a 90% probability of success over a 30-year horizon. That figure is up slightly from the 3.7% rate the same research estimated the prior year, thanks to modest improvements in capital-market assumptions, but it still sits below the traditional 4% threshold. Importantly, Morningstar’s analysis assumes a 30-year spending window and does not factor in Social Security or other non-portfolio income sources.
There is a meaningful silver lining for someone already at age 70. Because the 3.9% base case is built around a 30-year horizon (roughly age 65 to 95), a retiree who starts later faces a shorter planning window. Morningstar’s research explicitly notes that older retirees can reasonably spend at rates above 3.9% precisely because their time horizon is compressed. That calculus shifts further in the friend’s favor if he incorporates flexible strategies: Morningstar found that combining a “guardrails” withdrawal approach with delayed Social Security benefits can push the starting safe withdrawal rate as high as 5.7% in some scenarios.
That said, the concern about needing to withdraw more than 4% to cover day-to-day expenses is a genuine warning sign. If a retiree cannot comfortably live within a safe withdrawal rate, the honest conclusion is that the portfolio may simply not be large enough yet. Waiting and continuing to save, even for another year or two, can meaningfully reduce the annual drawdown required and give the nest egg more time to grow.
The bigger picture on longevity is also worth keeping in mind. The CDC reported that U.S. life expectancy at birth reached 79.0 years in 2024, its highest level on record. However, that population-wide figure understates the reality for someone who has already reached 70 in good health. Financial planning experts recommend using the upper end of actuarial tables rather than the average, and for a 70-year-old, planning to age 90 or beyond is prudent. With a family history of parents living into their 90s, the friend is right to stress-test his plan against a longer timeline.
The most practical step the OP’s friend could take is a conversation with a fee-only financial advisor. A professional can assess whether the friend is truly ready to retire, model out scenarios based on his actual spending needs and longevity expectations, and design a withdrawal strategy that goes beyond blanket rules of thumb. At age 70, the clock is running; getting personalized guidance sooner rather than later can make the difference between a secure retirement and a stressful one.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to reflect Morningstar’s 2025 State of Retirement Income research, which revised the base-case safe withdrawal rate to 3.9% (up from the 3.7% figure cited in the prior year’s report), and to include new CDC data showing U.S. life expectancy at birth reached a record 79.0 years in 2024.
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