Pepsi’s Stock Has Fallen About a Third From Its Peak. A Gen X Investor Who Grew Up With the Brand Could Be Taking More Risk Than She Realizes
PepsiCo has lost nearly a third of its value since 2023, and a brand you grew up loving can quietly disguise just how much retirement risk is sitting in your 401(k) right now.
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PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP | PEP Price Prediction) topped out near $196 in 2023. Shares now trade around $134, a decline of about 32%.
If you’re 58 and grew up on Doritos, Gatorade and Mountain Dew, that drop may not feel like risk at all. The brand is everywhere, the dividend keeps rising, and the stock can feel like the safest thing in your 401(k).
For illustration, take a hypothetical Gen X saver with $500,000 in her plan, $80,000 of it in PepsiCo through her employer’s brokerage window. That puts 16% of her retirement in one company.
Knowing the Brand Tells You Little About the Stock
PepsiCo is a snack and beverage company operating in more than 200 countries and territories. The share price is what investors will pay for that company’s future earnings, and it moves on its own, however often you see the logo.
PepsiCo’s profit outlook has weakened. Management slashed its 2026 core EPS growth forecast to 2.5% to 3.5%, down from the low end of an earlier 5% to 7% range. Core operating profit in North American snacks fell 12% on a constant-currency basis. On the third-quarter call, CEO Ramon L. Laguarta said, “We do not feel good about the beverage business,” and added that the company does not expect consumers to be in a much better place “in the next 12 to 18 months.”
What a One-Third Drop Costs on $80,000
If her $80,000 PepsiCo position fell by a third, she’d lose about $26,700. That’s company-specific damage: a pricing misstep, cost inflation or a weak soft-drink lineup can do it while the broader market rises.
A diversified fund such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), which charges 0.03% a year, spreads that risk across hundreds of companies. One holding’s stumble just moves the total.
A Rising Yield Can Hide a Shrinking Position
PepsiCo yields about 4.4% and has raised its dividend for 54 consecutive years.
At the 2023 peak, the quarterly payout of $1.15 worked out to a yield near 2.3%.
The payout has since grown about 29% to $1.48, but the falling share price did much of the work of driving the yield higher.
At roughly 4.4%, $80,000 in PepsiCo shares produces about $3,550 a year in dividends at the current payout rate. That income can look steady even while the principal behind it shrinks. Inside a 401(k), those dividends remain in the account until withdrawn. Plan your retirement income around total return, and treat the headline yield as one piece of it.
Selling Inside the Plan Triggers No Tax Bill
Many long-time holders avoid selling because of capital gains taxes. Inside a traditional 401(k), trades are tax-free events. Tax comes due only when money leaves the plan.
Withdrawals are where the tax cascade starts. Distributions count as ordinary income, which can make up to 85% of Social Security benefits taxable under 26 U.S.C. § 86(a)(2).
In 2026, Medicare surcharges begin above $109,000 for single filers or $218,000 for married couples filing jointly. The first tier adds about $1,148 a year for someone enrolled in both Parts B and D.
Medicare generally looks at income from two years earlier, so what she reports at 63 could affect her premiums at 65. The thresholds and surcharge amounts will be different by then.
Required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin at 73 for some retirees and later for younger savers, and missing one carries a 25% excise tax. A heavy, struggling position can force sales at low prices just to meet the withdrawal (we walked through how to shrink that first-year tax bill years before it lands in a free guide here).
New money is easier to direct. She can put future 401(k) contributions into diversified funds instead of adding to her PepsiCo position.
Three Checks Before Your Next Statement
- Add up your real exposure. Count PepsiCo shares in the brokerage window, any company stock and the stock funds you hold. If one name tops about 10% of the account, decide on purpose whether that weight fits your retirement allocation.
- Check your sector mix. Consumer staples can feel defensive, but owning several brand-name food and beverage stocks concentrates you in the same cost and consumer pressures PepsiCo is reporting now.
- Map your withdrawals two years before Medicare. Compare your expected retirement income with the surcharge thresholds in effect when you approach 65, then plan your 401(k) distributions year by year to avoid unnecessary premium increases.
PepsiCo’s next earnings report will show whether the lowered fiscal 2026 guidance holds, a natural moment to repeat these checks on your own account.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
