5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
> Years to recover: 7.0
> Home value peak: 9/1/2006
> Home value trough: 12/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -50.5%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -30.2%
After plunging 50.5% from September 2006 to December 2011 — the second steepest peak-to-trough drop of the 50 most populous CBSAs — home values in Riverside grew 5.3% over the 12 months through January 2015. If the improvement continues at that pace, home values in Riverside will return to their peak level in about seven years, early 2022. The unemployment rate in Riverside soared from 4.9% in 2006, when home values were at their highest, to 14.2% in 2010, a year before home values bottomed. In the same time period, the national unemployment rate went from 4.6% to 9.6%. Even with recent improvements, Riverside home values are still 30.2% below their September 2006 peak.
4. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
> Years to recover: 7.9
> Home value peak: 5/1/2006
> Home value trough: 12/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -58.2%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -38.9%
Of the 50 most populous CBSAs, no region’s home values were slammed more than those in the Las Vegas area where values fell a staggering 58.2% from May 2006 to December 2011. And while it took five-and-a-half years for values to stop falling, they may not return to peak levels for almost eight years, January 2023 based on the 6.4% growth rate in the 12 months through January 2015. While values have recovered somewhat from the trough, they are still almost 39% below their peak. One reason for the slow recovery pace is the area’s 2013 unemployment rate was 9.7% which was, higher than the national rate for the at least the ninth year in a row.
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3. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
> Years to recover: 9.7
> Home value peak: 6/1/2006
> Home value trough: 10/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -47.1%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -27.4%
After falling 47.1% from their June 2006 peak home values in the Phoenix area hit bottom in October 2011. Over the 12 months through January 2015 they grew 3.4%. If that growth rate were to continue, Phoenix area home values would climb back to their peak in just under 10 years, September 2024. While current home values are up 37.2% from their trough, they remain down 27.4% from their peak. The area had a 3.7% unemployment rate in 2006 when its home values were at their highest, almost a full point below the nation’s 4.6% jobless rate at the time. When home values troughed, though, the area’s 2011 unemployment rate rose to 8.7% which was an improvement from 2010, when the area’s jobless rate hit 9.6%. In the Phoenix area, as in most other regions, the unemployment rate peaked about a year before values hit their low point.
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