Special Report
Tennessee Has Ranked Among the Most Dangerous States in the Country for Decades
Published:
Violent crime has been trending downward in the United States for decades. According to the FBI, the U.S. violent crime rate — a population-adjusted measure that includes incidents of robbery, homicide, and aggravated assault — fell by nearly 90% between the mid-1990s and mid-2010s. Though a historic surge in homicides helped drive the violent crime rate up in 2020, the U.S. remains far safer than it was at any point in the 1990s.
Over the 26 year period of comprehensive FBI data, beginning in 1995 and going through 2020, the number of violent crimes reported annually in the U.S. ranged from about 1.8 million, down to less than 1.2 million. Over the same period, the violent crime rate peaked at 684 incidents for every 100,000 people in 1995, and hit a multi-decade low of 362 per 100,000 in 2014.
The FBI also tracks violent crime rates at the state level, and in Tennessee, has long been more concentrated than it has nationwide. Every year between 1995 and 2020, the violent crime rate in Tennessee exceeded the national rate, often by a wide margin — and between 2000 and 2020, Tennessee ranked among the five most dangerous states in the country.
Still, like the U.S. as a whole, Tennessee is much safer now than it was in the 1990s. As of 2020, Tennessee’s violent crime rate was 13% lower than it was in 1995.
While some factors that led to the reduction of criminal violence remain unknown, experts have identified several likely underlying causes. According to a report from the Brennan Center for Justice, a non-profit policy institute, these include an aging population, declining alcohol use, increased policing and incarceration, and several economic conditions related to inflation, unemployment, and consumer confidence.
While homicide is the most serious violent offense in the FBI’s hierarchy of violent offenses, it is also the least common. In the last 26 years, homicides have never accounted for more than 1.5% of all violent crimes reported in Tennessee. In contrast, aggravated assault has accounted for over 60% of all violent offenses reported in Tennessee every year.
Year | Violent crimes per 100,000 people in Tennessee | Violent crimes per 100,000 people in the U.S. | Total violent crimes in Tennessee | Total violent crimes in U.S. |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 672.7 | 398.5 | 46,328 | 1,313,105 |
2019 | 598.9 | 380.8 | 40,908 | 1,250,393 |
2018 | 630.4 | 383.4 | 42,687 | 1,252,399 |
2017 | 655.0 | 394.9 | 43,940 | 1,283,875 |
2016 | 638.5 | 397.5 | 42,459 | 1,285,606 |
2015 | 618.9 | 373.7 | 40,816 | 1,199,310 |
2014 | 610.7 | 361.6 | 39,989 | 1,153,022 |
2013 | 585.8 | 369.1 | 38,063 | 1,168,298 |
2012 | 638.5 | 387.8 | 41,213 | 1,217,057 |
2011 | 607.8 | 387.1 | 38,895 | 1,206,031 |
2010 | 612.0 | 404.5 | 38,909 | 1,251,248 |
2009 | 666.0 | 431.9 | 41,933 | 1,325,896 |
2008 | 722.7 | 458.6 | 44,913 | 1,394,461 |
2007 | 755.0 | 471.8 | 46,482 | 1,422,970 |
2006 | 762.5 | 479.3 | 46,043 | 1,435,123 |
2005 | 757.3 | 469.0 | 45,104 | 1,390,745 |
2004 | 697.6 | 463.2 | 41,113 | 1,360,088 |
2003 | 691.3 | 475.8 | 40,409 | 1,383,676 |
2002 | 717.8 | 494.4 | 41,562 | 1,423,677 |
2001 | 744.0 | 504.5 | 42,776 | 1,439,480 |
2000 | 707.2 | 506.5 | 40,233 | 1,425,486 |
1999 | 695.0 | 523.0 | 38,111 | 1,426,044 |
1998 | 715.0 | 567.6 | 38,832 | 1,533,887 |
1997 | 789.7 | 611.0 | 42,389 | 1,636,099 |
1996 | 774.0 | 636.6 | 41,175 | 1,688,540 |
1995 | 771.5 | 684.5 | 40,549 | 1,798,792 |
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