Is Wall Street ready to value Apple as if it’s got a future?

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Daniel Tello, one of my favorite independent analysts, thinks it might.


From Fiscal 4Q 2018 Final Estimates posted Monday on deagol’s AAPL model:

Posting a month early and before Wednesday’s event, as promised, in order to test my assumptions and intuition into this cycle, as I did last year as well with satisfying results.

The most uncertain item for me this time is iPhone pricing. I’m modeling a modest reduction from last year prices. Hope Apple can achieve this, as it would allow for a more sustainable boost to unit growth over mid single digits and easily beating the record 231.5m units sold in 2015.

The other sources of uncertainty are the Mac and iPad product lines. I’m assuming a significant update (finally) to both lines, announced and available for purchase this week. My Mac projections may be optimistic but the effect on total revenue and earnings of any mistake on my part will be limited.

I expect a strong Apple Watch Series 4 update, helping with continued very strong Other Products revenue growth.

Finally, I’ve slightly pared back my buyback intensity estimates, and accelerated the gradual valuation expansion.

Below: Tello’s full chart. Click here for his estimates.


My take: Tello goes back to my original Earnings Smackdown, nearly a dozen years ago. His Apple forecasts have been among the 10 best—if not the best—more times than I can remember.