SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) came public last month in one of the most anticipated IPOs of the decade, and the reception on day one was everything Elon Musk could have wanted. Shares were priced at $135, opened at $150, and rocketed to $225 as retail investors piled in. That was the high-water mark. In noon trading today, the stock changed hands around $125, a near 45% decline from its peak.
The slide has been steady rather than sudden. Over the past month alone, SPCX is down 35.03%, and it lost another 5.12% in the current session. At today’s price, market capitalization sits at roughly $941.8 billion.
Why the Rocket Reversed
Three distinct catalysts have weighed on the stock. First, a shareholder unlock event. A Reddit post that drew 1,309 upvotes and 512 comments on r/wallstreetbets summed up the anxiety in a single line: “SPCX first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float.” Insiders getting liquid creates structural selling pressure, and the math is ugly.
Second, competition. Japan successfully landed a reusable rocket prototype, and the bull thesis of years-long moat took a direct hit. As one r/investing poster put it: “Had SPCX in my watchlist at $180 with ‘competition is years away’ as the core thesis, then Japan landed a rocket this weekend.”
Third, valuation gravity. The Atlantic argued companies like SpaceX are going public “primarily to raise an unprecedented amount of capital needed for the extremely expensive artificial intelligence race,” earning the piece a bearish sentiment score of -0.413. Following the early-2026 xAI acquisition, that capital hunger is real.
Is $125 Cheap Enough?
Not by Morningstar’s math. The research firm pegs fair value at $780 billion, or $62 per share, which implies SPCX is still roughly twice as expensive as its intrinsic worth. Wall Street sees it differently: consensus target sits at $244.50 with 7 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings.
Prediction markets are firmly in the cautious camp. Polymarket traders assign 96.5% probability that SPCX closes above $90 by month-end, but only a 20% chance of reclaiming $140. The full-chain put/call ratio of 1.05 tilts defensive, and August expirations run as high as 3.17.
What to Watch Next
Starlink remains the swing factor. Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski argues investors are missing the bigger picture, calling Starlink “poised to exceed expectations” as a multi-platform infrastructure play spanning launch, communications, defense, and AI. Her note earned a bullish 0.488 sentiment score.
The stock is closer to a reasonable entry than it was at $225, but between Morningstar’s $62 fair value and a market pricing in additional unlock waves, the eventual bottom may sit well below where Morningstar is willing to draw the line.
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