Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are falling 12% to $110 in early Wednesday trading, extending a rough stretch that has pushed the stock down more than 30% since its June IPO.
The move follows SpaceX’s first public earnings report, released after the close on August 4. Revenue beat estimates by a wide margin, yet a surge in AI capital spending and a looming lockup expiration are driving heavy selling.
Other space names are barely moving, signaling that this is a company-specific reaction rather than a sector rout. The prediction markets echoed the pessimism, with Polymarket showing a 77.5% probability of a down day for SPCX on August 5.
AI Capex Shock Overshadows a Big Revenue Beat
SpaceX’s Q2 2026 revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year (YoY), above the roughly $6.82 billion consensus. AI revenue jumped 247%, Starlink revenue rose 67%, and launch revenue climbed 29%. SpaceX also reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion and a narrowed net loss of $541 million.
However, the top-line strength is being overshadowed by capital spending. SpaceX’s AI capex ballooned to $15.8 billion, from $7.7 billion in Q1 2026, with total Q2 capex of $18.37 billion. That has stoked free-cash-flow concerns even with the company’s $93.52 billion cash pile and $47.5 billion backlog. Starlink, now above 12 million subscribers, remains the only profitable segment.
SpaceX also named NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) as its exclusive AI-chip supplier and unveiled a Starmind AI-1 payload that puts datacenter-class compute into orbit using NVIDIA Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. SpaceX founder Elon Musk framed the buildout as central to the growth story.
Wall Street Split as Lockup Expiration Looms
Wall Street came away divided on SpaceX stock after the print, with the bulls leaning into the AI growth story and the more cautious voices fixated on spending and the coming share unlock. The price targets now stretch across a strikingly wide range.
Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein said SpaceX beat expectations on both the top line and profitability in its first quarterly report as a public company, and that the firm is “more positive” on SpaceX’s positioning across its key markets following Q2 2026. Epstein flagged elevated capex expectations and lingering questions about how SpaceX will monetize its AI and Starlink Mobile capabilities. Even so, Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating and a $235 price target on SpaceX stock.
JPMorgan raised its price target on SpaceX stock to $240 from $225 and kept an Overweight rating after the report, citing the company’s “extreme vertical integration” and the fast pace of change in AI. The firm noted that SpaceX believes it can exit 2026 with a December annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate of $100 billion, well above its prior 2027 estimate of $75 billion, and reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a year earlier than previously expected. JPMorgan added that the step-up in compute capacity and higher monetization could pull forward the $100 billion in AI revenue it had modeled for 2028 into 2027.
Wells Fargo trimmed its price target on SpaceX stock to $215 from $230 while keeping an Overweight rating. Management struck an optimistic tone on the AI segment during the debut call, guiding to 2027 capacity additions well above expectations, and the firm raised its 2027 and 2028 estimates for capex, revenue, and EBITDA, saying SpaceX is “off to an ambitious start.”
Meanwhile, Piper Sandler took the other side, cutting its price target on SpaceX stock to $140 from $156 with a Neutral rating. The firm acknowledged that SpaceX easily beat consensus, yet it cautioned that the tradable share count will soon rise by more than 140% as the lockup expires, that 2027 capex could reach about $65 billion (roughly $17 billion above its earlier view), and that SpaceX’s lucrative AI cloud contracts remain cancelable.
The first post-IPO lockup expiration will hit tomorrow, August 6, which could increase the tradable share count by more than 140%, with additional releases in December 2026 and June 2027. Options positioning reflects the caution, with SPCX carrying a put/call ratio of 0.87 across the full chain.
Peers Hold Steady as the Selloff Stays Company-Specific
The space cohort is down, but not as dramatically as SpaceX stock. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 1%, AST SpaceMobile shares are down 5%, and Virgin Galactic stock is down 4%.
Planet Labs shares are down 3%, Intuitive Machines stock also falling 3%, and the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is declining 2%. The ETF is a narrow, single-theme fund carrying sector-concentration risk, and it is not leveraged.
The comparatively muted peer reaction reinforces the read that today’s action is about SpaceX’s capex trajectory and share supply, not a broader loss of faith in space equities. Polymarket contracts still assign a 57.5% probability of SPCX closing above $100 by August 31, suggesting traders view the selloff as tactical rather than terminal.
What To Watch Next
Investors can watch for how SPCX stock absorbs tomorrow’s lockup expiration and whether analyst commentary on the gap between AI capex and AI monetization firms up in the coming days. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition is set to close in Q3 2026, another integration event that could shape the next leg.
The core debate is cash burn, supply overhang from the lockup, and whether Starlink’s profitability can carry the story while the AI build accelerates. Investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest until the lockup clears and free-cash-flow trajectory becomes clearer.
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