Tesla’s China Challenge

Key Points

• Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) lags its rivals in the world’s largest EV market.
• Yet, Tesla has a larger global footprint than its Chinese competitors.
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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) continues to be the leading electric vehicle (EV) brand in America and has about 50% of the market. However, in China, the world’s largest EV market, it needs to pick up growth.

According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the production of “new energy vehicles” (EVs and hybrids) hit 1.48 million in November 2024, up 43.9% from November 2023. According to China Daily, “The penetration rate of new energy vehicles, a gauge of popularity, in the domestic market climbed to 52.3 percent last month, according to the data.”

China-based new energy car company BYD sold 504,033 vehicles in November, while Tesla China sold 78,856. That put BYD in first place in the segment based on production, while Tesla ranked fourth.

The good news for Tesla in China is that November was its best month of 2024, based on unit volume.

Tesla’s competition worldwide is quite different from that in China. While most of BYD’s sales are in China, Tesla has a larger global footprint, and that is unlikely to change. Tariffs on Chinese EVs are 100% in the United States and also high in Europe. BYD will keep its lead in China. Tesla will probably keep it in the United States and the European Union.

EV tariffs could be in place for years. That will continue to be as critical to sales as car prices and features. Even new self-driving features cannot overcome a “tariff-driven” system.

Tesla’s problems in China will not disappear, and neither will its advantages across much of the rest of the world.

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