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Earnings Previews: ArcelorMittal, Coca-Cola, Peabody Energy, Twitter

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Markets closed flat to lower on Monday, primarily due to some heavy last-minute selling. Out of 22 companies we tracked that reported earnings after markets closed, 10 missed revenue expectations and four missed on earnings, while three missed on both. Among stocks announcing results Tuesday morning, another 10 missed revenue estimates.

Four notable earnings reports are due out after markets close Tuesday: Chipotle, Enphase, Global Foundries and Lyft. We also have previewed three firms set to report quarterly results before markets open on Wednesday: Cameco, Canopy Growth and CVS Health.

Earlier in the morning, we previewed four firms set to report results after markets close Wednesday afternoon: Disney, Fox, MGM Resorts and Uber.

Here is a look at four firms scheduled to report results first thing on Thursday.

ArcelorMittal

The world’s second-largest (by market cap) steelmaker, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), has added more than 53% to its share price over the past 12 months. The company announced Monday that it plans to replace three of its five French blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces between now and 2030 as the company seeks to cut up to 40% of its carbon emissions in the country.

ArcelorMittal is also reported to be in the mix of potential buyers with $2 billion to spend on Sprng Energy, an India-based renewable energy platform. Steel production produces approximately 10% of global carbon emissions.

There are 17 brokerage firms covering the stock, and 16 of them have Buy or Strong Buy ratings on the shares. There are no negative ratings. At a recent share price of around $28.30, the upside potential based on a median price target of $40.36 is nearly 43%. At the high price target of $50.78, the upside potential is 79.4%.

For the fourth quarter, ArcelorMittal is expected to report revenue of $20.06 billion, which would be down less than 1% sequentially and up 41.5% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $3.48, down 18.4% sequentially and much better than year-ago quarterly EPS of $0.19. For the full 2021 fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $13.27 compared to a loss of $0.78 per share last year, on revenue of $76.1 billion, up 42.9%.

ArcelorMittal stock trades at 2.5 times expected 2021 EPS, 4.1 times estimated 2022 earnings of $8.04 and 5.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.70 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $22.21 to $37.87. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.30 (yield of 0.95%). Total shareholder return for the past year is about 45.7%.


Coca-Cola

Long-time Warren Buffett favorite and a Dow Jones industrial, Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) has posted a share price gain of about 29% over the past 12 months. Since touching a recent bottom in early December, the stock is up 19%. Coke’s free cash flow per share of $2.71 is practically telegraphing a dividend increase and maybe even a stock buyback. Over the past four quarters, EBITDA has averaged around $3.3 billion and net income has averaged about $2.2 billion, while revenue has averaged about $9.2 billion.

Analysts are bullish on the stock, with 18 of 26 analysts giving it a Buy or Strong Buy rating. The other eight have a Hold rating on the shares. At a share price of around $62.10, the upside potential based on a median price target of $64 is 3.0%. At the high price target of $71, the upside potential is 14.3%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $8.92 billion, 11.2% lower sequentially and up 3.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.41, down 36.7% sequentially and down 12.8% year over year. For the full 2021 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for EPS of $2.29, up 17.6%, on revenue of $38.09 billion, up 15.4%.

Coca-Cola stock trades at 27.1 times expected 2021 EPS, 25.5 times estimated 2022 earnings of $2.43 and 23.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $2.60 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $48.97 to $62.21. The high was posted Tuesday morning. Coca-Cola pays an annual dividend of $1.68 (yield of 2.73%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 28.2%. The company is one 2022’s Dogs of the Dow.

Peabody Energy

Between mid-October and mid-December, the stock price of Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) dropped by more than 54%. The shares have still managed to rack up a 12-month share price gain of about 272%. Demand for coal soared last year, particularly in Asia, and more particularly in China. Chinese coal companies have not been able to meet demand, so the country has been importing more in an effort to keep the lights on.

The Chinese also plan to bump up steel production. The International Energy Agency has forecast that coal-fired electricity generation for the period between 2021 and 2024 will rise by 4.1% in China, 11.0% in India and 12.0% in Southeast Asia, while dropping by 21% in the United States and 30% in the European Union.
Few analysts cover the stock. Two of the four who do rate the shares a Buy and the other two at Hold. At a share price of around $13.25, the upside potential based on a median price target of $15 is 13.2%. At the high price target of $25, the upside potential is 88.7%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.08 billion, up 58.4% sequentially and 46.5% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $1.34, down 34% sequentially but up from a year-ago loss per share of $1.32. For the full 2021 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for a loss per share of $0.40, considerably better than a $19.14 loss in 2020, on revenue of $313 billion, up 8.6%.

Peabody stock trades at 2.4 times estimated 2022 earnings of $2.55 and 67.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $0.20 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $2.61 to $19.83. The high was posted Tuesday morning. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year was 257.6%.

Twitter

Since posting a 12-month high on March 1 of last year, Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) has seen its share price drop by more than 53%. The less-good news is that happened in early March and about half that gain has been given back since then. Since February 2, shares have dropped by about 5.5%, compared to a gain of 9% for Snap and a loss of about 31% for Meta Platforms.

User growth is the metric that must improve in order to offset revenue lost to Apple’s transparency tracking and the rise of TikTok. On Monday, ARK Investment Management sold 3.94 million shares of Twitter, perhaps anticipating a Meta-like shock.

Analysts are mixed on the stock, with most keeping their powder dry. Of 39 brokerages rating the stock, there are 23 Hold ratings and 11 Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $36.20, the upside potential based on a median price target of $53 is 46.4%. At the high price target of $85, the upside potential is 135%.

For the fourth quarter, revenue is forecast at $1.57 billion, up 22.6% sequentially and 22.2% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.34, up from a loss per share of $0.54 sequentially and down 10.5% year over year. For the full 2021 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.22, compared to last year’s loss per share of $0.87, on revenue of $5.08 billion, up 36.7%.

Twitter stock trades at 161.3 times expected 2021 EPS, 40.2 times estimated 2022 earnings of $0.90 and 28.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.27 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $32.05 to $80.75. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 37.9%.

 

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