It's Checkmate With Apple in China

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Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) faces significant competition in China, particularly from domestic brands like Oppo. Concerns about tariffs could further impact Apple’s market share and stock performance. The region’s importance is highlighted by its role in Apple’s earnings growth. While Apple is pushing its new AI features with the iPhone 16, many consumers might opt for alternative AI apps on existing devices. Apple’s challenge lies in the app store, where third-party AI products could rival their offerings. A potential price adjustment for the iPhone 16 could be considered, but it would impact profit margins.


I’m going to wonder how this plays out in China.

Because in China, Apple really has competition.

And it’s not Samsung.

There are, like Oppo, there are big, big competitors.

And Apple is lucky to have any market share there at all, given what you’ve got from a homegrown standpoint.

Those people are going to have super duper AI on their phone.

So if I’m Apple, the one place I worry about is China.

Well, especially if they get very, very across the board on tariffs.

You can bet that’ll make it even a tougher issue over there.

If they have tariffs and it affects Apple iPhone sales at all, that’s what will send the stock back to the lows that we saw in the last 60 days.

Because if you look at Apple’s earnings breakout by region…

The only one that’s grown, you know, over the last five years or so in any meaningful way is what they call greater China.

The balance of the regions, you know, when they announce a new iPhone, you see some nice movement there, but services, which is sort of what they think is the future of Apple.

And it’s not the iPhone is and greater China.

Nor is cloud storage for streaming music or anything like that.

They’re way behind that game.

Forget it there, they say services to the future, I understand it’s the fastest growing division within the apple but China and the iPhone are still apple’s future that has not changed now for probably a decade, so what you’re saying is is.

You’ve got the consumer. He’s playing chess with Apple.

It’s really checkmate because Cook’s saying you want to get yourself some of our great AI.

You’re going to have to buy an Apple 16 starting in September.

That’s his play.

Well, it’ll definitely price some people out of the market because they’re not going to care.

They can use the get the AI app just on their get it.

An AI app on, on, on their phone, or they can just go on their laptop.

So, I mean, they can, they can download chat GPT.

Well, I think that’s the final point here.

And that is, is that there will be a bunch of stuff in the app store that allows you to do 90% of this because, because Apple has an antitrust, you know, they’re worried that antitrust people are coming after them everywhere, particularly the EU and the United States.

They’re not going to do anything to try to block that stuff coming in.

They’re going to have to, play ball no matter how good it is and how much it compares to the new apple ai features all of that stuff’s going to be available so to me if there is anything apple has to worry about with the 16 it’s in their app store there may be some really great ai products

Yeah and and or or if and i don’t know if this is a likely possibility or if if you know Apple says, OK, well, maybe we’ll lower the price.

Maybe that’ll be the pitch.

Like, you know, you paid $1,300 or $1,400 for $1,500, get a $1,600 for $1,200 or some sort of sell like that.

But I don’t know.

It could go either way at this juncture, I bet.

Well, hard to say if they do that, obviously.

It hurts margins.

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