With all three of the major stock market averages headed toward the finish line with gains, including a 2% rise in the S&P 500, one Wall Street firm is preparing for the worst. Wolfe Research cautioned that the S&P 500 could shave off anywhere between 30% and 37% if even a mild economic recession were to hit, pointing to a range of 3,700 and 4,100 for a broader stock market index whose all-time high is above the 6,000 level. The S&P 500 is down nearly 7% year-to-date and even touched on correction territory recently, owing to tariff uncertainty.
The broader markets are advancing today, with the S&P 500 up approximately 1.7% as of early afternoon trading. Tech stocks are powering the indices higher today, with all of the Magnificent Seven stocks trading in the green.
With Q1 earnings season well underway, Big Tech stock Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) is next in line to report after today’s closing bell. The S&P 500 is being led by toy company Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS), with a 16% gain, and ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW), up by 15%.
The S&P 500 is on track for its third-straight winning session as the markets pivot their focus to earnings season. Tariff uncertainty remains but for now the markets are seeing the glass half full. The S&P 500 is being helped by NOW (NYSE:NOW) stock, which expects to benefit from the current economic uncertainty. The stock is up 14% on the day. IBM (NYSE: IBM) is a loser today as the U.S. government’s DOGE cuts threaten to cut into its spending plans.
Economic data has been mixed, with March durable goods orders soaring while home sales plummeted last month to GFC lows.
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The markets are showing a lack of conviction this morning as they await further success on trade negotiations but are currently staying positive, with all three of the major stock market indices moving higher. Today’s gains mark the third straight day of gains for the broader market index, the S&P 500.
Durable goods orders increased by a better-than-expected 9.2% in March, surpassing estimates of 1.6%, as businesses made haste to secure orders prior to rising tariffs. Transportation equipment orders led the results, climbing a massive 27% higher last month. Elsewhere, home sales sunk by 5.9% in March, revisiting levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.
Here’s a look at the performance as of morning trading:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 218.01 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq Composite: Up 267.01 (+1.59%)
S&P 500: Up 59.31 (+1.1%)
ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW | NOW Price Prediction) is the stock of the day, tacking on approximately 14% in the session. After reporting earnings and revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations, ServiceNow management suggested that the company is benefiting from the economic uncertainty, forecasting 2025 revenue growth of nearly 20%. NOW stock has taken investors on a wild ride in 2025 and hovers about 22% below its 52-week high.
P&G (NYSE: PG) stock is tumbling by 4.8% today as it feels the brunt of the tariff fallout. Basically the company is experiencing a great deal of uncertainty and is contemplating changing suppliers as well as revising its product formulas to avoid the impact from tariffs.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) stock is also falling, losing 6.4% on the day at last check. IBM managed to beat Q1 estimates on both the top and bottom lines but cautioned that government cuts could cut into its capex spending.
Merck (NYSE: MRK) reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue but reduced its profit outlook on tariff-related costs.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
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