Post-Earnings Move: 🔻 -4.32%
What Happened:
Revenue ($50.2B) and adjusted EPS ($0.37) beat, but GAAP net income swung to a loss on one-time EV and warranty charges. Full-year EBIT guidance was reinstated, but lower than February’s original.
Why the Stock Dropped:
Despite operational momentum, investors focused on rising tariff drag ($2B EBIT impact), GAAP losses, and Ford Blue weakness. Model e is growing but still bleeding red.
My Take:
Ford Pro is a gem, but macro and policy headwinds are stealing the spotlight. Until tariff clarity improves, expect the stock to trade defensively around cash flow and dividend safety.
| KPI | Q2 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ford Pro Software Subs | 757K | ▲ +24% |
| Adj. Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | ▼ -$0.4B YoY |
| Tariff-Related EBIT Impact | -$0.8B | ▼ Worse |
Revenue: $18.8B (+11% YoY)
EBIT: $2.3B with 12.3% margin
Paid software/service subscriptions: +24% YoY to 757K
Software & services now make up 17% of Ford Pro EBIT trailing 12M
Revenue: $2.4B (+105%)
EBIT: -$1.3B (worse YoY)
Losses stemmed from tariffs, EV plant startup costs, and next-gen R&D
Excluding tariffs, Mustang Mach-E & F-150 Lightning EBIT was flat YoY, a modest win.
Revenue: $25.8B (-3% YoY)
EBIT: $661M vs. $1.17B a year ago
Despite “profitable share gains” and cost improvements, the segment was hit by a tough YoY comp from last year’s F-150 launch.
CEO Jim Farley emphasized Ford+ execution and Ford Pro’s high-margin model:
“Ford Pro is a unique competitive advantage driving both top and bottom-line growth while creating new high-margin revenue streams from software and physical services.”
CFO Sherry House added:
“This marks our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement excluding tariffs. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen — we’re remaking Ford into a more durable business.”
Ford declared a 15 cent Q3 dividend, signaling confidence in cash generation despite net losses.
Ford reinstated full-year guidance after pulling it last quarter:
Adjusted EBIT: $6.5B–$7.5B
Adj. Free Cash Flow: $3.5B–$4.5B
Capital Spending: ~$9B
Tariff-related EBIT headwind: ~$2B (up from $1.5B previously)
➡️ This is a lower EBIT range than the original February guide ($7.0B–$8.5B), but reflects confidence in cost improvements and strong cash flow momentum.
Ford Motor Company reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a record revenue of $50.2 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year.
Despite this, the company incurred a net loss of $36 million due to special charges related to a field service action and the cancellation of an electric vehicle program. Adjusted EBIT was $2.1 billion, impacted by $0.8 billion in net tariff-related costs.
The company generated $6.3 billion in operating cash flow and $2.8 billion in adjusted free cash flow. Ford declared a third-quarter dividend of 15 cents per share. The company reinstated its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted EBIT between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion.
CEO Jim Farley emphasized the success of the Ford+ plan and the competitive advantage of Ford Pro, while CFO Sherry House noted continued cost improvements.
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.2B | $43.93B | ✅ Beat |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.37 | $0.33 | ✅ Beat |
| Net Income (GAAP) | –$36M | $1.26B | ❌ Miss |
| Adjusted EBIT | $2.1B | — | — |
| Adj. Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | — | — |
As of 3:13 p.m. ET Ford shares are now down 1.85% for the day.
At around 3 p.m., Jerome Powell said there has been no decision made on cutting rates at the September meeting. Immediately after the comment, Treasury yields jumped 6 basis points and stocks fell.
Ford shares were caught in the crossfire, dropping nearly 1% between 2:45 p.m. and 3:10 p.m. ET. We said earlier to expect volatility during Powell’s press conference and we’re now seeing it.
On July 9th RBC Capital raised its price target on Ford to $10 from a prior target of $9.
RBC maintained a ‘Sector Perform’ rating on the company’s stock. RBC is worried that consensus may be too high for the second quarter.
We’re just two hours away from Ford reporting earnings where we’ll see whether the company can top Wall Street’s expectations of $43.93 billion in sales.
Jerome Powell is holding a press conference at 2:30 to discuss the Federal Open Market Committee’s July interest-rate decision.
Betting markets are placing a 99% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but commentary from Powell and other details will be important. There’s a chance that multiple Fed governors will vote against keeping rates locked.
The big picture: even without a rate cut, there could be significant volatility late in the trading day. If Ford shares are moving, it’s likely unrelated to traders making earnings bets and more related to big money movements after Powell’s press conference.
Here’s what Wall Street expects when Ford reports tonight:
After General Motors struggled with the impacts of tariffs on auto sales, close attention will be paid to what Ford has to say about the ongoing situation.
Another area to watch will be Ford’s dividend payment. The company’s payout ratio stands at 45% in the past twelve months, but ongoing geopolitical uncertainty puts it at more risk.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Ford (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) shares are up 14% so far this year. With Q2 earnings on deck after the bell today, is the company headed for a crash or will it keep the rally going?
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after Ford earnings are released. Simply leave this article open in a your browser tab and new updates will push out automatically. We expect a flurry of updates in the 30 minutes after Ford’s earnings are released shortly after the market closes at 4 p.m. ET.
Before looking at what Wall Street expects this quarter, let’s look back at Ford’s first quarter earnings.
Here’s a summary of what Ford’s first quarter earnings looked like. The company reported on May 5th and shares are up more than 8% since then.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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