Live Updates: Will Alcoa (NYSE: AA) Beat Earnings After the Bell?
Key Points
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Alcoa reports tonight after the closing bell.
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The stock has declined 25% year-to-date and lagged many peers in the materials space.
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This live blog will give continuing updates after the company issues earnings with analysis into the market’s reaction.
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Live Updates
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AA Earnings Call
Heads up, everyone! AA is hosting its earnings call this Wednesday, January 22, at 5:00 pm EST. If you’re interested in tuning in, you can join the call by visiting their website at [alcoa.com](https://www.alcoa.com).
CEO Commentary and Updates
CEO Commentary: – William F. Oplinger: “In the second quarter of 2025, we continued our relentless execution on key objectives, which included progressing the sale of our interest in the joint venture with Ma’aden. We delivered on safety, stability, and operational performance in the quarter despite lower alumina and aluminum pricing.”
Strategic Updates:
-Alcoa completed the sale of its 25.1% interest in the Ma’aden joint venture for $1.35 billion, which is expected to result in a gain of approximately $780 million in Q3 2025.
– The restart of the San Ciprián smelter has been paused due to a power outage, with expectations to resume by mid-2026. – Alcoa received a favorable decision regarding an Australian tax dispute, resulting in a refund of $69 million.
Earnings out and stock up 1.89%
AA | Alcoa Corporation Q2’25 Earnings Highlights:
• Adj. EPS: $0.39 ✅; DOWN -82% YoY
• Revenue: $3.0B (Est. $3.4B) ❌; DOWN -10% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 10.4% ✅; DOWN -300 bps YoY
• Net Income: $164M ✅; UP +720% YoY
Q2’25 Outlook:
• Revenue: $3.0B ±5%
– Alcoa expects stable production and shipments in the Alumina segment, with total production projected between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons and shipments between 13.1 to 13.3 million metric tons.
– The Aluminum segment’s production is expected to remain between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons, with a slight reduction in shipments due to delays in the San Ciprián smelter restart.
Q2 Segment Performance:
• Alumina Revenue: $843M ❌; DOWN -31% YoY
• Aluminum Revenue: $1.956B ✅; UP +19% YoY
Other Key Q2 Metrics:
• Adj. Operating Income: $272M ✅; DOWN -68% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $82M ✅; UP +19% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $12M; DOWN -8% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $357M; UP +189% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 6.2% (vs. 10.0% YoY)
Alcoa Up in Late Trading
We’re a little more than an hour away from the end of the trading day and Alcoa has rebounded to being up .6% on the day.
The stock had dipped near noon along with the broader market. The day’s trading has been dominated by reports that Donald Trump was looking to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
After Trump denied the reports stocks rebounded.
Down 25% Year-to-Date
Alcoa is down 25% year-to-date while other materials peers have performed relatively well. For example, Century Aluminum is up 8% year-to-date.
Constellium SE is up 30%. That’s not to say that all materials stocks have done well, but Alcoa has also rebounded less from its decline that began during tariff rollouts than other comparable stocks.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reports earnings after the bell. The company’s stock is down 25% year-to-date headed into earnings, so the question on investors’ minds is whether today’s report can turn the slide around.
We’ll be updating this live article after Alcoa’s earnings hit the wires shortly after 4 p.m. ET, so leave this page open if you want continuing analysis.
What Wall Street Expects from Alcoa
Here are the key figures to watch when Alcoa reports tonight. Any immediate movement in the company’s share price will likely come from three key factors: 1.) the company’s EPS last quarter relative to expectations 2.) revenue relative to expectations and 3.) Updates provided for Alcoa’s full-year guidance.
Second Quarter Wall Street Expectations
- Revenue: $2.95 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $.39
- EPS (GAAP): $.31
- Gross Margin: 2.1%
- Cash from Operations: $354.2 million
Full Year Wall Street Expectations
- Revenue: $12.74 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $3.35
Key Storylines To Watch
Alcoa’s Q2 earnings have a few key storylines to watch if you’re invested in the company.
- Tariff Impacts: Look for adjusted EBITDA to be impacted by the U.S. Section 232 tariffs, with a projected unfavorable performance in the Aluminum segment of approximately $105 million due to increased tariff costs and operating expenses associated with the San Ciprián smelter restart.
- Revenue guidance: Alcoa expects to maintain strong performance in the Alumina segment, while the Aluminum segment may see a decline due to tariff impacts. What forward guidance and commentary Alcoa provides on its conference call will have a large impact on where the stock trades after-hours.
- Margins: Once again, tariffs are front and center. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will pressure profitability. This quarter will give additional insight into how Alcoa’s margins will be impacted by tariff uncertainty that can force companies to ‘eat’ unexpected costs.
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