Coinbase (COIN) –3.66%
Live Blog Update #8 Published
← Back to Full Coverage: Live: Will Coinbase (COIN) Post a Big Earnings Beat After Hours?
A billion-dollar profit and 60% EBITDA margins weren’t enough. Flat MTUs and soft subscription momentum disappointed investors looking for a reacceleration story. Coinbase remains a high-margin crypto utility — but without retail growth or visibility into a demand catalyst, the stock is vulnerable to macro sentiment.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
All Updates from Live Coverage
Live
CEO Brian Armstrong:
“We’ve reached a point where the business can remain profitable across market cycles. We’ve made real progress diversifying revenue, and we’re proud of our strong margin performance and discipline.”
CFO Alesia Haas:
“With three straight quarters of $1B+ in net income, we are demonstrating a clear shift in financial profile and product-market fit across retail, institutional, and developer segments.”
What Changed This Quarter
-
Net income topped $1B for a third straight quarter — historic consistency for COIN
-
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 61%, near record levels
-
Institutional trading volume and fee capture showed unexpected strength
-
International flywheel improving: 77% of user volume from non-U.S. accounts
-
BASE L2: over 7 million developers and 75M smart contracts deployed — now a scaled infrastructure product, not an experiment
Live
Despite flat MTUs, revenue grew sharply from improved pricing, higher institutional activity, and growth in base-layer crypto infrastructure services.
| KPI | Q2 2025 | Q/Q Change | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) | 9.0M | Flat | –14% |
| Assets on Platform | $227B | +3% | +55% |
| Trading Volume | $256B | +5% | +47% |
| Subscription Revenue | $576M | –1% | +41% |
| USDC Market Cap Supported | $34B | Flat | +16% |
Live
Shares of Coinbase are down over 7% after earnings. Lets dive in:
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | Consensus Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.66B | $1.59B | ✅ Beat |
| Net Income (GAAP) | $1.21B | ~$1.0B (implied) | ✅ Beat |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.01B | ~$930M | ✅ Beat |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $4.98 | $3.96–4.10 | ✅ Beat |
| Transaction Revenue | $831M | — | — |
| Subscription & Services | $576M | — | — |
| U.S. Spot Vol. Market Share | 12.9% | 11.5–12% (trend) | ✅ Beat |
Coinbase did not issue formal revenue or EPS guidance, but provided strong operational commentary:
-
Subscription & Services Revenue expected to be $550–$600M in Q3
-
Transaction Expenses expected to decline further
-
Headcount and opex remain flat QoQ — continuing margin leverage
-
Adjusted EBITDA positive expected again in Q3
Flat User Growth (MTUs Stalled at 9M)
-
While overall revenue surged, Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) were flat QoQ and down 14% YoY.
-
This signals limited retail momentum, even in a rising crypto market.
-
Investors likely expected user growth alongside rising trading volumes — and didn’t get it.
Live
We’re less than 30 minutes from the close of the trading day. Coinbase shares have been trading up most the day but have seen some selling after 3 p.m. ET, that’s pushed shares down to a more modest .18% gain.
Live
Coinbase shares closed at $377.48 on Tuesday, up more than 50% year-to-date. That performance reflects strong crypto asset flows, expanding subscription revenue, and broader excitement about tokenization and DeFi infrastructure.
But it also sets a high bar: the stock is pricing in both strong execution and positive market tailwinds. A miss on transaction revenue or a sequential decline in stablecoin inflows could reset near-term expectations.
With prior quarters showing violent post-earnings moves in both directions, guidance and segment mix will matter more than just headline EPS.
Live
COIN shares have shown sharp volatility around earnings, with massive upside in Q4 2024 but notable drawdowns in more recent reports. The market remains highly reactive to subscription trends and crypto liquidity.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | –87.56% | –6.2% | –11.9% | –15.8% |
| Q4 2024 | +129.41% | +13.7% | +17.4% | +22.2% |
| Q3 2024 | –33.33% | –5.3% | –7.1% | –9.4% |
| Q2 2024 | –82.50% | –4.8% | –5.5% | –6.1% |
Live
Now that we’ve taken a look back at Coinbase’s first quarter, let’s look at what Wall Street expects in Q2:
- Revenue: $1.594 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.49
- EPS (GAAP): $1.51
- Free Cash Flow: $525.5 million
Looking ahead to Q3 (Coinbase will provide outlook on select metrics like subscription revenue and various expenses that will be used to fill in models for next quarter), here’s what Wall Street expects looking forward:
- Revenue: $1.689 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.25
- EPS (GAAP): $1.33
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks